Xpeng Motors' Overseas Expansion Drives Attention

On December 17, 2025 at 16:30:01 (UTC+8), Xpeng Motors was listed on Tushare dc_hot (East Money App Hong Kong Stock Popularity List), mainly due to the strategic cooperation signed with EPMB on December 15 to build a factory in Malaysia, planning to start mass production in mid-2026 for G6 SUV and X9 MPV, serving the right-hand drive Southeast Asian market. This is the third overseas manufacturing base after Indonesia and Austria, further promoting global layout [0][1][2][3]. Meanwhile, the company’s November delivery volume increased by 19% year-on-year, with a cumulative 391,937 units from January to November, overseas deliveries up 95% year-on-year, and the 1 millionth unit rolled off the production line in mid-November, supporting the market’s confidence in expansion and capacity realization [4][5].

At the intersection of fundamentals and technicals, the current US stock closing price of $18.48 is close to the $18.00 support level. MACD, KDJ, and RSI indicate short-term no trend and oversold zone, with trading volume about 42% below the daily average, showing capital wait-and-see and selling pressure easing but buying not significantly recovering [0]. Valuation remains in loss (P/E -29.10x), P/B 4.11x, P/S 2.07x. Q3 net loss of RMB 381 million, profitability not yet reversed, and Q4 revenue guidance of RMB 21.5-23 billion is also lower than market expectations, reflecting short-term profit pressure [0][6]. Analysts’ consensus target price is $29 with a buy-dominated rating, giving about 57% upside potential, highlighting optimism for future profit improvement and overseas growth [0].

1. Strategic Overlay and Valuation Contradiction
   : Overseas factories promote localized production, reduce tariffs, and shorten supply chains, but require large capital expenditure and cross-border operation capabilities. In the short term, it synchronizes with the loss situation, and the market swings between ‘long-term story’ and ‘short-term profit’ [1][2][3][4][5][6].
2. Driving Force of International Expansion on Sentiment
   : News of Southeast Asia and EU bases has triggered positive reports in global media, driving attention from retail and institutional investors, making the stock price maintain a high consensus target price even in the technical downward cycle [1][2][3][0].
3. Buying Focused on Strategic Certainty
   : Despite the price decline, speculative funds are focusing on extensional events such as Malaysia factory construction, one-million-unit milestone, and overseas market coverage, indicating that funds are more sensitive to high-certainty catalysts [1][3][5].

• Risks
  : Sustained profit loss, Q4 revenue guidance below expectations, industry price war leading to marginal narrowing, high risks in overseas expansion execution and localized operation, technical indicators not yet confirming reversal [0][6][2]. If it breaks below the key support of $18, technical risks will further amplify, possibly testing $16.5 or even the extreme point of $11.14 [0].
• Opportunities
  : Overseas bases bring scale and localization advantages, high configuration ratio of X9 extended-range version, analysts’ target prices concentrated in the range of $24-$34, first-mover advantage in Southeast Asia and EU markets provides a path for future profit improvement [1][2][3][5][0].
• Time Sensitivity
  : The Malaysia factory is a medium-to-long-term positive before mass production in 2026; recently, the market needs to pay attention to Q4 delivery confirmation, revenue guidance, and whether it can maintain high-end configuration order intensity [4][6].

1. The event is driven by the December 15 Malaysia factory construction announcement. Xpeng’s entry into the ASEAN right-hand drive market is regarded as an important milestone in its global strategy [1][2][3].
2. Delivery growth (November +19%, January-November +156% year-on-year) and the 1 millionth unit rolling off the line strengthen the capacity expansion narrative, making overseas revenue and orders the focus of attention [4][5].
3. Current technicals are oversold with low trading volume, short-term pullback but no large-scale selling, indicating that funds are waiting for clearer profit and performance signals [0].
4. Analysts’ target prices are concentrated in the range of $24-$34, with 60% of consensus ratings as buy, holding cautious optimism for further upside, while monitoring the actual realization of Q4 revenue guidance and the stability of high-end model sales [0][6].
5. Xpeng Motors represents a typical target with ‘strong strategic story, high short-term pressure’, suitable for medium-to-long-term investors who have confidence in global new energy layout and can bear volatility; short-term participation requires close tracking of technical confirmation and support levels [0][6].