CATL Hot Stock Trend: Fundamentals and Expansion on Dual Tracks

As of 16:30 (UTC+8) on December 17, 2025, tracking data from Tushare dc_hot (East Money App Hong Kong Stock Popularity Ranking) shows CATL (03750.HK) topped the hot stock list, reflecting a rise in short-term liquidity and market attention [0]. Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturers have captured 69% of the global electric vehicle power battery market, with CATL and BYD forming a duopoly and consolidating their leading positions [1]. On the expansion front, the two gigafactories in Debrecen (Hungary) and Zaragoza (Spain) are progressing steadily; once operational in 2026, they can meet Europe’s electrification demand and further create local jobs and supply chain stickiness [1][3]. The LFP technology licensing project with Ford opens up application scenarios in data centers and smart grid energy storage for CATL, strengthening technology export and diversifying revenue structure [2]. In terms of market performance, A-share 300750 has recently consolidated in the range of 375-395 CNY; on December 17, the closing price was 383.42 CNY with a trading volume of 22.26 million shares. Its 6-month gain of +55% and year-to-date gain of +48% reflect a medium-to-long-term uptrend, but the month-on-month decline in trading volume and bearish technical indicators suggest that short-term breakthroughs or support levels need to be confirmed [0]. In terms of valuation, the TTM P/E ratio is 27.28 and ROE is 22.84%; financial indicators are healthy but already high, requiring upward performance to validate high expectations [0].

• Synergy between Geopolitical Expansion and Technology Replication
  : The European gigafactory project combined with LFP technology licensing not only diversifies sales risks but also enhances the sustainability of overseas localized layout; if both achieve synchronized capacity and order volume growth between 2026-2027, it can provide resilience against cyclical demand slowdowns [1][2][3].
• Tension Between Popularity Ranking and Fundamentals
  : Short-term capital and attention from the hot list help alleviate the impact of shrinking trading volume, but if the Q3 revenue gap and high valuation in fundamentals cannot be repaired under recent catalysts, investor sentiment may quickly return to rationality [0].
• Structural Risks Require Cross-Cycle Management
  : European anti-subsidy measures, U.S. IRA exclusion, and raw material (lithium, nickel) price fluctuations are sources of structural risks; cross-judgment with expansion pace, order conversion rate, and cost control capabilities is needed to prevent valuation adjustments caused by external uncertainties [1][2][3].

• Risk Points
  1. Q3 revenue missed expectations by 11.6%, reflecting short-term demand or price pressure; if Q4 cannot make up for it, valuations may be dragged down [0].
  2. High valuations (PE 27x, P/B 5.54x) already imply growth expectations; if macro or industry catalysts weaken, short-term adjustment pressure will be significant [0].
  3. Technicals have not broken through the 389 CNY resistance level and trading volume is below the 30-day moving average; short-term market may retest support levels again [0].
  4. Geopolitical and policy risks: EU anti-subsidy investigations, U.S. IRA exclusion of Chinese capacity, and raw material price fluctuations may all affect overseas expansion and profit margins [1][2][3].
• Opportunity Windows
  1. If the Debrecen/Zaragoza factories in Europe are completed on schedule, they will boost global orders and localized service capabilities, hedging against domestic demand fluctuations [1][3].
  2. Ford LFP licensing and the energy storage market open new revenue channels; if supporting orders take shape, it can improve profit structure [2].
  3. If trading volume and technical breakthroughs (above 389 CNY) are accompanied by fundamental repair, it can reactivate medium-to-long-term upward momentum [0].

• Hotspot Source: Real-time data from Tushare Hong Kong Stock Popularity Ranking, fundamentals, and expansion logic jointly drive up attention [0][1][2].
• Fundamentals: Stable profitability (ROE 22.84%), but revenue needs to return to the expected track; abundant cash flow, high valuation [0].
• Technical Aspect: Range-bound volatility; breaking through 389 CNY is a turning point, and the 377.84 CNY support level needs to be held steady [0].
• Structural Variables: European expansion, technology licensing, and geopolitical policies need to be observed simultaneously to determine medium-to-long-term potential [1][2][3].
• Conclusion: Supported by fundamentals and popularity, but short-term needs to wait for performance and technicals to confirm vitality; investors should act opportunistically after confirming a breakthrough or adjustment to support levels [0].