Reddit vs Reality: WSB Earnings Speculation vs Actual Market Outcomes (Nov 3-7)

WallStreetBets traders exhibited extreme positioning and sentiment during the November 3-7 earnings week:

• PLTR
  : Heavy speculation with users noting a 10.14% implied move versus historical 18.01% average next-day move. Traders made directional bets including $210 calls, with sentiment ranging from extremely bullish to bearish despite strong deal pipeline analysis suggesting modest upside potential.

• AMD
  : Mixed sentiment with some users expecting repeat of past 10% post-earnings drops despite beats, while others loaded up on $260 calls. Historical pattern awareness influenced positioning.

• HIMS
  : Bullish attention centered on potential Wegovy availability on platform, with users calling for post-earnings rally based on GLP-1 drug discussions.

• NVO
  : High-stakes meme-like predictions with extreme sentiment (“r/ValueInvesting 9/11 if NVO misses”).

• Broad Sentiment
  : Overall negative bias with multiple users noting many stocks reporting tanked, advocating for puts across the board. Some users expressed fatigue with earnings gambling after recent losses.

Actual market performance revealed a clear “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern across heavily speculated names:

• PLTR
  : Reported strong Q3 2025 results (EPS $0.21 vs $0.17 expected, revenue $1.18B vs $1.09B expected, up 62.8% YoY) but stock declined 6.8% on November 6, falling from $187.90 to $175.05.

• AMD
  : Delivered stellar Q3 2025 performance (EPS $1.20 vs $1.17, revenue $9.2B up 35.6% YoY, $9.6B Q4 guidance) but stock dropped 5.6% on November 6 after falling 2.5% in extended trading on November 4. Results were already priced in.

• HIMS
  : Reported Q3 2025 earnings meeting expectations (EPS $0.09, revenue $598.98M vs $578.99M expected) with better-than-expected sales and GLP-1 drug discussions, showing positive market reaction initially.

• NVO
  : Reported Q3 2025 earnings beat ($4.50 EPS vs $0.78 expected, revenue $74.98B vs $12.01B expected) but cut full-year guidance for the fourth time, causing 4% stock decline on November 6.

• Market Context
  : AI valuation concerns emerged during the week, affecting multiple tech stocks including PLTR and AMD, contributing to the negative reactions despite strong fundamentals.

The divergence between Reddit sentiment and actual outcomes was striking:

• Negative sentiment about earnings outcomes broadly proved correct, with most heavily speculated names declining post-earnings
• Historical pattern awareness for AMD (past drops despite beats) was validated

• Extreme bullishness on some names was misplaced despite strong fundamental results
• Underestimation of “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamics
• Failure to anticipate broader AI valuation concerns weighing on tech stocks

: Reddit traders focused heavily on earnings beats/misses while the market reacted more to guidance, valuation concerns, and already-priced-in expectations.

• Earnings gambling carries high risk due to “buy the rumor, sell the news” patterns
• Implied moves may not reflect actual volatility in overvalued sectors
• Broad sector concerns (AI valuations) can override individual company strength

• Post-earnings declines in fundamentally strong companies (PLTR, AMD) may present entry points
• HIMS’ positive reaction to GLP-1 discussions suggests growth catalysts beyond earnings
• Market overreactions to guidance cuts in otherwise strong companies

: The week demonstrated the danger of chasing earnings momentum in high-valuation stocks and the importance of considering broader market sentiment beyond individual company fundamentals.