Analysis of the Impact of Apollo's Consideration to Sell Atlas Air for $12 Billion on Private Equity Aviation Asset Valuations and Industry M&A Trends

Apollo Global Management is considering selling its controlling stake in Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings (AAWW) for more than $12 billion. The transaction is currently in the early consideration stage [9]. Atlas Air’s current market capitalization is $2.93 billion, with a share price of $102.48 [0], and its stock price has risen by 48.74% over the past 52 weeks [0].

The $12 billion valuation represents an approximately 310% premium over the current $2.93 billion market capitalization, and this premium level reflects several key factors:

The $12 billion valuation includes debt, meaning the Enterprise Value is much higher than the equity value. According to financial data, Atlas Air’s debt risk is classified as “high risk” [0], indicating the company bears a considerable debt burden.

Atlas Air is a leading global air cargo service provider, owning and operating one of the world’s largest fleets of Boeing 747 freighters, providing cargo services to large e-commerce and logistics enterprises such as Amazon and DHL.

• Benchmark Effect:
  This transaction will establish a new valuation benchmark for the air cargo sector, and the $12 billion enterprise value will significantly boost the industry’s overall valuation expectations.
• Multiple Expansion:
  Traditional air cargo companies typically have valuations between 8-12 times EBITDA, while Apollo’s sought-after valuation may be significantly higher than this range.

According to market analysis, strategic buyers accounted for 86% of transaction volume and 92% of transaction value in 2024 [1]. Apollo’s potential sale may indicate:

• Timing:
  Exiting at a time when air cargo demand is strong and valuations are high.
• Asset Allocation:
  Redirecting capital from heavy-asset industries to lighter-asset or high-growth sectors.

• The global freight forwarding market is expected to grow from $498.5 billion in 2025 to $782.4 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.9% [3].
• The digital freight forwarding market will reach $94.8 billion by 2030 from $33.6 billion in 2024, growing at an annual rate of 18.8% [3].

• Large logistics groups such as DSV and GEODIS are actively expanding their air cargo capabilities [2].
• Cooperation agreements between Atlas Air and companies like GEODIS indicate that industry consolidation is accelerating.

• E-commerce Demand:
  Continuous demand for air cargo from e-commerce giants like Amazon drives industry value.
• Supply Chain Security:
  Geopolitical factors prompt enterprises to seek more reliable logistics partners.

Atlas Air’s financial data shows:

• Net profit margin:7.82%
• Operating profit margin:11.48%
• ROE:12.12%
• Current ratio:0.96 (slightly below ideal level) [0]

• Global trade recovery drives air cargo demand.
• E-commerce penetration continues to rise.
• Demand for supply chain diversification.

• Economic cyclical fluctuations.
• Fuel price volatility.
• Geopolitical uncertainty.

The $12 billion valuation needs to be supported by:

• Strong EBITDA growth expectations.
• Fleet modernization and efficiency improvement.
• Long-term customer contract guarantees.
• Competitive advantages in core route networks.

Apollo’s consideration to sell Atlas Air for $12 billion will have far-reaching impacts on private equity aviation asset valuations and industry M&A trends:

1. Valuation Reassessment:
   Establish a new valuation benchmark for air cargo assets, potentially driving up valuations across the entire sector.
2. Accelerated Consolidation:
   Encourage more strategic buyers and private equity firms to participate in air cargo sector consolidation.
3. Specialization Trend:
   Push the industry toward more professional and large-scale development.
4. Exit Strategy:
   Provide a favorable exit reference for other private equity funds’ investments in the aviation sector.

The success of this transaction will set an important tone for M&A activities and asset pricing in the air cargo industry, and investors should closely monitor subsequent developments.

[0] Jinling API Data
[1] Deloitte WSJ - “2025 M&A Outlook Strong Across 6 Sectors” (https://deloitte.wsj.com/cmo/2025-m-a-outlook-strong-across-6-sectors-fa0b4c5a)
[2] Yahoo Finance - “Etihad Airways, DSV sign Atlas Air for dedicated 777 capacity” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/etihad-airways-dsv-sign-atlas-135137326.html)
[3] Yahoo Finance - “Freight Forwarding Market to Surge from USD 498.5 Billion…” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/freight-forwarding-market-surge-usd-102100447.html)
[9] Bloomberg - “Apollo Weighs Potential $12 Billion Sale of Atlas Air” (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-16/apollo-weighs-potential-12-billion-sale-of-atlas-air)