In-depth Analysis of the Impact of US-EU Digital Tax Conflict on Multinational Service Providers

The Trump administration recently issued a strong retaliation threat to the EU through the U.S. Trade Representative Office, accusing the EU of restricting the competitiveness of U.S. service providers through ‘discriminatory and harassing lawsuits, taxes, fines, and directives’ [1]. The core of this conflict lies in the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA) and Digital Markets Act (DMA), which have already led to a $140 million fine against X and ongoing investigations into U.S. tech giants such as Google, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta [2].

The U.S. government has explicitly named nine European companies as potential retaliation targets, including well-known multinational service providers such as Accenture (ACN), Siemens (SIE.DE), and Spotify (SPOT) [1]. The Trade Representative Office warned that if the EU continues to restrict U.S. service providers through discriminatory means, the U.S. will use all available tools to counteract [1].

Accenture currently has a market capitalization of $170 billion, a stock price of $272.04, and has fallen 22.01% since 2025 [0]. As a leading global IT consulting service provider, Accenture holds an important position in the European market, with European revenue accounting for 33.2% [0]. The company has a solid financial position, with a ROE of 25.56%, net profit margin of 11.02%, and current ratio of 1.42 [0].

Notably, Accenture recently expanded its partnership with Palantir to establish a dedicated AI business group, showing strong momentum in AI transformation [3]. Deutsche Bank analysts raised the target price from $235 to $265 due to improved AI sentiment [4].

Siemens has a market capitalization of $187.05 billion, a stock price of $238.25, and has performed strongly in 2025 with an annual increase of 25.98% [0]. As a representative of German industrial technology, Siemens occupies a key position in global digital transformation. The company has healthy financial indicators, with a ROE of 17.31% and net profit margin of 12.65% [0].

Spotify has a market capitalization of $118.54 billion, a stock price of $579.07, and has risen 26.49% in 2025 but fallen 17.75% in three months [0]. As the world’s largest music streaming platform, Spotify’s U.S. market revenue accounts for 43.2%, and other international markets account for 56.7% [0]. The company has a high P/E ratio (72.06x), reflecting the market’s high expectations for its growth potential [0].

1. Tariff and fee burden
   : The U.S. may impose additional tariffs or fees on the U.S. operations of the above-mentioned companies, directly affecting their profitability. Especially Spotify, whose U.S. market revenue accounts for more than 40%, may face a significant financial impact [2].

2. Operational restrictions
   : The U.S. may restrict the operational activities of these companies in the U.S. market, including core business functions such as data transmission and customer service.

1. Bilateral trade barriers
   : Such retaliatory measures may trigger a chain reaction, leading to broader trade barriers and affecting global service trade flows. The U.S. service trade surplus with the EU is about $100 billion annually, which may be eroded as a result [2].

2. Deterioration of regulatory environment
   : The deterioration of the transatlantic regulatory environment may increase corporate compliance costs and affect long-term investment decisions.

1. Increased stock price volatility
   : Political uncertainty usually leads to increased stock price volatility. The stocks of the three companies have already shown varying degrees of volatility after the relevant news was released.

2. Valuation pressure
   : Political risks may lead to a decline in valuation multiples, especially for high-valued companies like Spotify.

1. Relative benefit for U.S. tech companies
   : If EU regulation tightens, U.S. local tech companies may face more challenges in the EU market, which may instead strengthen the position of U.S. companies in other global markets.

2. Emerging market opportunities
   : Transatlantic tensions may accelerate the strategic shift of enterprises to emerging markets, including Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and other regions.

1. Market diversification
   : Target companies should accelerate the reduction of dependence on a single market and strengthen their layout in emerging markets.

2. Supply chain restructuring
   : Consider geopolitical risks and restructure global supply chains and service delivery models.

3. Optimization of compliance costs
   : Invest in automated compliance tools to reduce operational impacts from regulatory changes.

1. Follow policy progress
   : Closely monitor the progress of U.S.-EU trade negotiations and the timeline for the introduction of specific retaliatory measures.

2. Risk hedging
   : Consider hedging political risk exposure through derivatives or other tools.

1. Fundamental-driven
   : Long-term investment should return to fundamentals, focusing on the company’s core competitiveness, cash flow status, and growth prospects.

2. Geopolitical premium
   : Appropriately consider geopolitical risk premiums in valuation models, especially during periods of political tension.

The US-EU digital tax conflict represents an important turning point in global digital economy governance, and its impact on multinational service providers will be far-reaching and complex. Companies such as Accenture, Siemens, and Spotify face short-term uncertainty, but in the long run, this geopolitical pressure may also promote positive adjustments in the industry pattern.

Investors should closely follow policy progress while making rational investment decisions based on company fundamentals. In the current environment, the concepts of market diversification, risk management, and long-term value investment are particularly important.

[0] 金灵API数据
[1] FastBull - “美欧数字税开战：特朗普点名九巨头” (https://m.fastbull.com/cn/news-detail/4360392_1)
[2] The Verge - “Trump admin threatens retaliation against Spotify and others over EU tech regulation” (https://www.theverge.com/news/845869/ustr-eu-trade-threat-spotify-mistral)
[3] Yahoo Finance - “Accenture and Palantir Expand Global Strategic Partnership to Drive AI Reinvention” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/accenture-palantir-expand-global-strategic-210400866.html)
[4] Yahoo Finance - “Deutsche Bank Lifts Accenture (ACN) Target on Improving AI Sentiment” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deutsche-bank-lifts-accenture-acn-191132895.html)
[5] WebProNews - “Trump’s Tech Tariff Threat: Spotify in the Crosshairs of US-EU Clash” (https://www.webpronews.com/trumps-tech-tariff-threat-spotify-in-the-crosshairs-of-us-eu-clash)