Commercial Aerospace Sector Rally: Core Drivers and Industry Chain Investment Analysis

Based on my in-depth analysis of the recent development of the commercial aerospace sector, the following is an analysis of the core driving factors behind the sector’s cumulative increase of over 20% and the investment value of its industry chain:

The China National Space Administration has officially established the

, China’s first national-level dedicated regulatory body, marking a major shift from “九龙治水” (fragmented governance) to “专司专管” (specialized management) [1]. This initiative will significantly optimize key processes such as launch approval, frequency-orbit resource application, and operation license issuance, greatly reducing the institutional transaction costs for enterprises [4].

The Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Aerospace (2025-2027) has deployed

, clearly stating the goal of achieving “efficient collaboration in the industrial ecosystem and significant scale expansion” by 2027 [1][4]. The plan builds an enabling closed loop from four dimensions:

• Supply Side
  : Establish a negative list for market access to significantly lower entry barriers
• Capital End
  : Set up a national commercial aerospace development fund to guide “patient capital” into key technologies
• Cost End
  : Promote the opening and sharing of national aerospace infrastructure to reduce redundant construction pressure
• Market End
  : Encourage commercial rockets and satellites to participate in national missions, providing important demand scenarios [4]

• Technological Breakthrough
  : Zhuque-3 and Long March 12A reusable rockets have successfully completed technical verification, expected to reduce launch costs to
  below 20,000 yuan per kilogram
  [6]
• Demand Release
  : China Satellite Network’s GW constellation (planned
  12,992 satellites
  ) is entering large-scale deployment [5]
• Capital Support
  : SpaceX is advancing its IPO with a 1.5 trillion USD valuation, providing a valuation anchor for the global commercial aerospace industry [6]

1. Core Materials for Rocket Engines
   : Extremely high technical barriers, large domestic substitution space
   • Target: Western Materials (002149) - Exclusive domestic supplier of niobium alloy materials for SpaceX [3]
   • Logic: Rocket engines are the core breakthrough point for reusable technology

2. Satellite Communication Payloads & Chips
   : Core components for satellite internet construction
   • Targets: Zhenlei Technology (TR chips), Chengchang Technology (RF chips), Jiayuan Technology (radiation-hardened chips) [2][6]
   • Logic: Benefit from bulk demand from rapid GW constellation networking

3. Aerospace Special Materials
   : Surge in demand for lightweight materials (titanium alloys, carbon fiber)
   • Targets: Saree New Materials (engine inner wall materials), Tianli Composite (metal composites) [2][3]
   • Logic: Structural components for a single rocket are worth ~15 million yuan [3]

1. Satellite Assembly & Testing
   : Mass production trend
   • Targets: China Satellite (assembly leader), Aerospace Electronics (top weighted stock) [1][2]
   • Logic: Shift from customized to mass satellite manufacturing

2. Launch Services & TT&C Networks
   : Capacity bottleneck to be broken
   • Targets: Aerospace Hongtu (rocket assembly), Chaojie Co. (rocket body components) [2]
   • Logic: Hainan Commercial Launch Site operational; capacity to rise sharply in 2026 [4]

1. Satellite Internet Operation
   : Trillion-level market space
   • 2025 China satellite internet market size:
     >45 billion yuan
     [6]
   • Targets: Zhongke Xingtu (space computing), Shanghai Hanxun (G60 communication payloads) [2][6]

2. Ground Equipment & Terminals
   : New models (mobile direct satellite connection)
   • Huawei Mate 80 supports dual satellite communication; >10 million users expected by 2030 [1]
   • Targets: Putian Technology (laser links), Qianzhao Optoelectronics (solar cells) [2]

3. Industry Application Solutions
   : Transportation, agriculture, emergency response
   • Targets: Aerospace Development, ShengBang Security (satellite security) [6]
   • Logic: High-value-added commercial applications accelerating

• 2025
  : Reusable rocket tech verification; accelerated satellite network deployment
• 2026
  : Dongwu Securities predicts “commercial aerospace explosion year” [2]
• 2027
  : Three-year plan target achievement; industrial ecosystem formed

• 2025 China commercial aerospace market:
  2.8 trillion yuan
  [4]
• 2030 market size:
  7.8 trillion yuan
  [4]
• Application services to account for 55% (largest value link)

: Focus on upstream core component firms driven by tech breakthroughs
: Layout downstream application service leaders
The industry is in a critical transition from “tech verification” to “scale realization”. Core tech breakthroughs, policy dividends, and expanding application scenarios create strong resonance, offering historic opportunities for chain enterprises [6]

[1] Securities Times - “This index hits 7-year high! Institutions: Hundreds of billions in positive impact” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3541369.html)
[2] Dongwu Securities - Computer Industry Commercial Aerospace: Singularity Moment, Aerospace Power (251203 Report) (https://m.hibor.com.cn/wap_detail.aspx?id=bcf7f58749880fb27cdd2356b3fa1ee3)
[3] 21st Century Business Herald - “Nuclear Fusion + Commercial Aerospace: This Beijing Stock Exchange Bull Rises ~120% Weekly” (https://www.21jingji.com/article/20251214/herald/6b29353a9813a04c891f7580ce2f00fa.html)
[4] Wall Street CN - “10 Trillion Industry! Zhuque-3 & China’s Commercial Aerospace Starry Sea” (https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760647)
[5] Weekly View: Intensive Commercial Aerospace Catalysts (PDF) (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202512141800314143_1.pdf?1765727149000.pdf)
[6] Forbes China - “Long March 12 Launches! SpaceX’s Trillion Valuation Ignites Aerospace Fever” (https://www.forbeschina.com/innovation/70778)
[7] 21 Economic Network - “Satellite Internet to Exceed 45B Yuan: Which Sub-sector Leaders to Watch?” (https://www.21jingji.com/article/20251212/herald/24c2ab3d19334d95b3eadd10b62ac0f2.html)