Analysis of the Impact of Waymo's $100 Billion Valuation on Alphabet

• Current stock price: $306.57, market capitalization: $3.7 trillion [0]
• Year-to-date performance: +61.84%, past year: +55.89% [0]
• Analyst ratings: 83.7% Buy rating, median target price: $305 [0]

• Negotiating a new round of financing exceeding $15 billion
• Valuation reaches the range of $100-$110 billion [1]
• Compared to the $45 billion valuation in October 2024, it has grown by 122% in 14 months [1]

• Waymo’s $100 billion valuation accounts for approximately 2.7% of Alphabet’s total market capitalization
• The new $15 billion financing accounts for 15% of Waymo’s valuation, with limited dilution effect
• Participation of external investors indicates market recognition of Waymo’s independent value

• Reduce Alphabet’s ongoing financial burden on Waymo
• External capital validation boosts investor confidence
• Independent valuation unlocks “hidden value”

• Equity dilution may affect future synergies
• High valuation increases market expectation pressure
• Risks of regulatory scrutiny and intensified competition

• Weekly passenger volume: 450,000+ rides (December 2025) [1]
• 2025 total passenger volume: 14 million rides, 3x that of 2024 [1]
• Estimated annual revenue: approximately $280 million (based on an average fare of $20) [1]
• Cumulative autonomous driving mileage: 100 million+ miles [1]
• Employee size: 2500+ people [1]

• Revenue multiple: 357x (based on $280 million annual revenue)
• Compared to traditional automakers: Overvalued
• Compared to tech unicorns: Reasonable range
• Considering growth potential: Moderately overvalued

• Tesla FSD
  : Partial market value of $100-$150 billion
• Cruise (GM)
  : Valuation of approximately $30 billion
• Zoox (Amazon)
  : Acquisition price of $1.2 billion in 2019

• Safety record: 85% lower accident rate compared to human driving [2]
• Operational scope: Commercial operation in multiple cities
• Technology maturity: Leading the industry in fully autonomous driving mileage

• Global mobility market: Trillions of dollars in size
• Autonomous driving penetration rate: Expected to reach 15-20% by 2030
• Waymo target markets: Urban mobility, logistics, enterprise services

• Technical barriers: Data and algorithm advantages from years of R&D accumulation
• Operational experience: First-mover advantage in actual commercial operation
• Financial strength: Continuous support from Alphabet

• Network effect: Economies of scale reduce unit costs
• Diversified revenue: Passenger transport, logistics, technology licensing
• Regulatory advantage: Value of licenses for compliant operations

Based on Waymo’s business characteristics, intrinsic value should consider:

• Short-term (1-3 years): CAGR of 100-200%
• Mid-term (3-5 years): CAGR of 50-100%
• Long-term (5-10 years): CAGR of 20-30%

• Current: Significant losses (high R&D investment)
• Mid-term: Operating margin turns positive
• Long-term: Target net profit margin of 15-25%

• Profitability in 2028
• Annual revenue reaches $5 billion
• Operation in 25 major global cities

• Profitability in 2030
• Annual revenue reaches $3 billion
• Operation in 15 major global cities

• Profitability in 2032
• Annual revenue reaches $1.5 billion
• Intensified competition affects market share

• Waymo’s financing positive news has been partially reflected in stock prices
• Focus on financing details and composition of external investors
• Monitor performance of other Alphabet businesses

• Waymo’s success will be an important growth engine for Alphabet
• Recommend holding, but need to pay attention to overall development of autonomous driving industry
• Diversify investment risks, avoid over-betting on a single concept

• Changes in autonomous driving regulations
• Data privacy and security requirements
• Antitrust scrutiny

• Uncertainty of technological breakthroughs
• Potential impact of safety incidents
• Technological catch-up by competitors

• Commercialization implementation speed lower than expected
• Consumer acceptance issues
• Impact of economic cycles on mobility demand

• Monthly active passenger volume growth
• Improvement in unit economic benefits
• Progress of new city expansion

• Revenue growth rate
• Changes in gross margin
• Cash flow status

• Changes in market share
• Technical patent applications
• Talent flow situation

Waymo’s $100 billion valuation has certain rationality at the current stage, mainly reflected in:

1. Obvious technological leading edge
   : Safety data and operational experience support valuation premium
2. Broad market prospects
   : Huge long-term market space for autonomous driving
3. Smooth commercialization progress
   : Rapid growth in passenger volume verifies business model

But it also faces challenges of high valuation:

• Current revenue multiple is too high, profitability timeline remains uncertain
• Competitive landscape may change, technical advantages may be caught up
• Uncertainties in regulatory environment and public acceptance

For Alphabet, Waymo’s independent financing and valuation increase are overall positive, enabling:

• Unlock business value and enhance group’s overall valuation
• Reduce financial burden and focus on core businesses
• Attract external talents and partners

It is recommended that investors pay attention to Waymo’s commercialization progress and profitability timeline, as well as the development trend of the entire autonomous driving industry, as important references for evaluating Alphabet’s long-term investment value.

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[0] Gilin API Data - GOOGL Real-time Stock Price, Company Profile and DCF Analysis
[1] Bloomberg - “Waymo Seeks to Raise Funds at Valuation Near $100 Billion” (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-16/waymo-seeks-to-raise-funds-at-valuation-near-100-billion)
[2] The Driverless Digest - “Waymo Stats 2025: Funding, Growth, Coverage, Fleet Size & More” (https://www.thedriverlessdigest.com/p/waymo-stats-2025-funding-growth-coverage)
[3] Tracxn - “2025 Funding Rounds & List of Investors - Waymo” (https://tracxn.com/d/companies/waymo/__UpAa92cu6I3nD1pKiAq6mTvC9D6vw8mva0A5vvool5M/funding-and-investors)