Analysis of Global Tech and Growth Stock Investment Strategies Amid AI Investment Boom and Trade Uncertainties

According to the latest OECD forecast, the global economy has shown stronger resilience than expected driven by the AI investment boom. Global economic growth is projected to be 3.2% in 2025 but will slow to 2.9% in 2026[1]. The OECD clearly states that excluding AI-related investments, the U.S. economy would have seen a slight contraction in the first half of 2025, but AI demand has made tech production and trade momentum significantly higher than other industries[1].

The AI investment boom is mainly reflected in three aspects:

• Rapid expansion of data center construction
  : An important force supporting major economies
• Tech spending plays a supporting role
  : Shows resilience amid trade uncertainties
• Productivity flywheel effect
  : AI has brought productivity improvements in tech, healthcare, finance, industry and other fields

From 2025 market data, tech stocks show obvious divergent performance:

:

• NVIDIA (NVDA)
  : Annual return rate 28.49%, market capitalization reaches $4.33 trillion, data center business accounts for 88.3% of revenue[0]
• Apple (AAPL)
  : Annual return rate 12.61%, market capitalization $4.06 trillion, services business accounts for 26.2% of revenue[0]
• Microsoft (MSFT)
  : Annual return rate 13.81%, market capitalization $3.54 trillion, cloud services account for 34.9% of revenue[0]

:

• High volatility characteristics
  : NVIDIA’s annualized volatility is as high as 50.18%, maximum drawdown 36.89%[0]
• Relatively stable
  : Microsoft’s annualized volatility is 24.74%, maximum drawdown 20.72%[0]
• Balanced performance
  : Apple’s annualized volatility is 33.06%, maximum drawdown 30.22%[0]

From a technical analysis perspective:

• Nasdaq Index
  : Fell 1.48% in the past 30 trading days, volatility 1.11%[0]
• S&P500 Index
  : Rose 0.17% in the same period, volatility 0.79%[0]
• Dow Jones Index
  : Rose 2.05%, showing relative advantage of value stocks[0]

:

• Tech sector
  : Rose 0.83% today, outperforming many traditional sectors[0]
• Utilities
  : Led gains with 2.11%, showing demand for defensive assets[0]
• Energy sector
  : Fell 0.88%, reflecting concerns about economic slowdown[0]

The OECD warns that negative impacts on trade may intensify in 2026. Although the current tariff impact is still mild, the effect will be more significant after enterprises digest previously built inventory[1]. Global trade growth is projected to drop from 4.2% in 2025 to 2.3% in 2026[1].

:

• Cost transmission
  : Tariff pass-through effect may peak in mid-2026
• Investment suppression
  : Policy uncertainty limits corporate investment willingness
• Supply chain restructuring
  : Tariffs will accelerate regional cooperation and supply chain reshoring

Geopolitical tensions remain one of the main risks in 2026. Nevertheless, new structures are creating opportunities for investors:

• Regionalization trend
  : Emerging markets in Asia have increased trade with other markets and reduced dependence on the U.S. and Europe
• Domestic demand-driven
  : Domestic demand-oriented economies like India show unique resilience
• Technological innovation
  : AI becomes a key force to break through geopolitical constraints

• Infrastructure layer
  : Chip manufacturers like NVIDIA and AMD, benefiting from the explosion in computing power demand
• Cloud service layer
  : Cloud computing platforms like Microsoft and Amazon AWS, with rapid growth in AI service revenue
• Application layer
  : Tech giants like Google and Meta with massive data and algorithm advantages

In response to concerns about AI bubble risks, professional institutions recommend adopting a diversified strategy:

:
Institutions like Aberdeen Group and Prudential Asset Management believe that the Indian stock market has low correlation with AI concept trading and can serve as a hedge tool for the global stock market highly concentrated in tech stocks[2]. The advantages of the Indian market are:

• Strong domestic demand growth momentum
• Low correlation with other markets
• Valuations have fallen back to near the 5-year average level
• Dominated by banks, consumer enterprises and services, providing diversified returns[2]

:

• Japan
  : Improved corporate governance, with large amounts of capital returned to shareholders
• India
  : GDP growth is highly correlated with stock market performance, and structural reform effects are evident
• Southeast Asia
  : Beneficiaries of supply chain restructuring

:
Based on historical data analysis, recommendations:

• Control AI-related stock allocation to 30-40% of the portfolio
• Control overall risk exposure through volatility target strategy
• Use derivative tools to hedge against extreme downside risks

:

• Maintain a 5-10% cash position to cope with market fluctuations
• Phased position building strategy to avoid chasing high risks
• Regular rebalancing to maintain target allocation ratio

[1]:

• AI applications in tech, healthcare, finance, and industry fields
• Companies that can apply AI to key pain points create value

• Robotics, automation, digital twin technology
• Reshaping manufacturing, transportation, and construction industries

• AI economy is highly dependent on energy
• Power management, smart grid, digital optimization fields

:

• AI investment boom is expected to continue and bring longer-term benefits
• Technological progress drives productivity improvement and creates new business models
• Structural reforms in emerging markets provide diversified opportunities for investors

:

• Trade uncertainties may intensify, affecting global supply chains
• AI valuations are high, with correction risks
• Geopolitical tensions may persist

:

:

• U.S. large-cap tech stocks (30-40%)
• Global index ETFs (20-30%)
• Emerging market funds (10-20%)

:

• Special investment in AI infrastructure (15-20%)
• Regional thematic investment (10-15%)
• Defensive assets (5-10%)

:

• Maintain investment discipline and avoid emotional decisions
• Regularly review investment logic and adjust allocation in time
• Focus on fundamental changes rather than short-term market noise
• Adopt a layered risk control system to prevent systemic risks

In the complex environment where AI investment boom and trade uncertainties coexist, investors should seize the structural opportunities brought by the AI revolution while effectively managing risks through diversified allocation to achieve long-term stable investment returns.

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[0] 金灵API数据 - 股票价格、财务数据、技术指标及市场统计数据
[1] 雅虎香港财经 - “經合組織預計AI投資熱潮將提振生產率但貿易不確定性依舊存在” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/經合組織預計ai投資熱潮將提振生產率-但貿易不確定性依舊存在-095533077.html)
[2] 雅虎香港财经 - “對沖AI泡沫風險全球基金點名「這國」股市是最佳選擇” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/對沖ai泡沫風險-全球基金點名-這國-股市是最佳選擇-022528059.html)