2025-2026 Macro Market Background and Cross-Asset Allocation Outlook

1. Global Entry into the New Normal of Low Interest Rates, Low Growth, and Low Inflation
   : Currently, major U.S. stock indices have shown a volatile consolidation trend over the past 60 trading days: the S&P 500 rose only slightly by 1.8%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ fell by about 1.5%, indicating that the market has not fully confirmed the continuation of the “bull market”; in this environment, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovers at 4.15%, showing that the Federal Reserve is still on the sidelines and tends to “maintain high levels and observe further”, but there is room for decline, especially if economic data or credit risks worsen further [0].

2. Sino-US Monetary Policies Remain Prudent but Structural Differences Are Obvious
   : Domestically, the policy mix still focuses on stabilizing expectations and supporting fiscal policy: the short end maintains liquidity through MLF and reverse repos, while the medium to long term may use limited RRR cuts plus treasury bond purchases/sales to address PSL maturities, in order to ease credit contraction pressure. If real estate or local debt risks become more concentrated, the central bank still has the ability to release about 1 trillion yuan of long-term funds through an RRR cut in Q1 2026; meanwhile, there is room for symbolic cuts in LPR and 7-day reverse repos, with a preference for “targeted” rather than full-scale easing [1]. For the U.S., the market generally believes that “stable monetary policy” remains the keynote, but structural risks (real estate, local debt) may trigger unexpected easing. If risk events escalate, the Federal Reserve may further cut interest rates and maintain output levels through fiscal stimulus and AI-related capital expenditures [2].

3. Structural Trends and Policy Priorities
   : Institutions like Morgan Stanley believe that 2026 is a transition period for China from deflation to low inflation: fiscal policy may be加码 again in the second half, linked to real estate reforms; monetary policy tends to “symbolic rate cuts + targeted tools”, relying on technology, consumption, and AI to drive domestic demand. The U.S. uses AI investment and productivity improvement as growth engines, while trying to reduce debt burdens through lower interest rates and large-scale fiscal stimulus. The U.S. dollar index is stable in the short term but faces downward pressure, while the RMB is expected to appreciate slightly in the second half of the year [3]. The Sino-US policy divide emphasizes “stability” rather than “expansion”, but their respective structural reforms and industrial promotion (AI, green transition, localization) still bring thematic opportunities.

4. Market Signals and Defensive Asset Preferences
   : Recently, data on China’s equity market is incomplete, but U.S. sector rotation has become apparent: “Utilities + Basic Materials” led gains at the end of the year, while energy and defensive health sectors lagged, reflecting that funds prefer stable cash flow and duration assets [0]. Gold prices fluctuated at a high level of $4335 per ounce, indicating that investors still have demand for future interest rate declines and safe-haven assets [0].

1. General Principles of Asset Allocation
   • Focus on the composite goal of “return + defense”, emphasizing three main lines:
     duration + credit + structural growth
     .
   • Adopt a
     multi-strategy portfolio (stable equity + interest rate + credit + alternatives)
     with supporting dynamic rebalancing, liquidity platforms, and risk hedging (options/volatility strategies);
   • Diversify systemic risks through
     cross-market
     (China-US/Europe) and
     cross-asset
     (equity/interest rate/commodity/currency/alternative) allocation, combined with
     structural themes
     (AI, green, new infrastructure) and
     defensive themes
     (high dividend, infrastructure, sustainable bonds).

2. Equity Category (Approx. 35%-45%)
   • U.S. Stocks
     : Opportunistically allocate to AI infrastructure (semiconductor equipment, cloud computing, enterprise AI services), low-leverage consumer staples, and utilities; use the cash flow advantages of tech leaders to hedge against interest spread compression; maintain an industry rotation mechanism to achieve quantitative balance between growth and defense.
   • China A-Shares
     : Focus on allocating to new energy, intelligent manufacturing, consumption upgrading, and national strategic infrastructure (e.g., data centers, energy storage); meanwhile, increase allocation to midstream manufacturing leaders that pass the dual screening of “policy support + profit certainty”. Considering the A-share valuation repair period, moderately increase positions in leading financial and consumer enterprises with stable ROE and strong cash flow.
   • Cross-Market Hedging
     : Reduce reliance on a single policy through industry complementarity across different markets (e.g., U.S. AI + China’s intelligent manufacturing).

3. Interest Rate and Credit (Approx.30%-40%, Including Cash Equivalents)
   • Continuously maintain
     medium-to-long duration treasury bonds/policy financial bonds
     (60/40 allocation between China and the U.S.), with a current yield of 4.15% as the benchmark, and a duration of 3-7 years to balance returns and market value fluctuations; China can use “policy reloans + treasury bonds” to lock in positive returns.
   • Credit Bonds
     : Screen medium-to-short-term urban investment/corporate bonds with high ratings, especially those in non-real estate sectors such as manufacturing transformation, data center infrastructure, and clean energy; allocating bonds rated AA or above with moderate spreads can gain capital gains in the early stage of interest rate decline.
   • Interest Rate Strategy
     : Retain some floating-rate instruments (e.g., floating-rate notes, interest rate swaps) to hedge against yield adjustments caused by policy shifts.

4. Commodities and Alternatives (Approx.10%-15%)
   • Gold
     : In periods of low interest rate expectations, geopolitical risks, and policy uncertainty, maintain gold allocation (physical ETFs or futures) as a safe-haven and inflation hedge. The current price level already reflects the “safe-haven premium”, but it is still worth holding long-term, especially as it may rise again when an expected rate cut cycle arrives [0].
   • Industrial Metals/New Energy Metals
     : Phased focus on lithium, copper, etc., as basic materials for AI and carbon neutrality, leveraging demand increments driven by global supply chain restructuring and green investment; can hold small proportions through ETFs or thematic funds.
   • Infrastructure and Private Equity
     : Allocate part of fixed-income private equity (REIT-like products, renewable energy project revenue rights) to lock in stable cash flow and reduce market volatility.

5. Multi-Strategy and Currency Strategy (Approx.10%-15%)
   • Volatility/Event-Driven Strategy
     : During periods of policy uncertainty (e.g., Federal Reserve interest rate decisions or China’s annual Two Sessions), use laddered option portfolios to capture market adjustment opportunities; meanwhile, maintain sufficient liquidity to respond to unexpected events.
   • Currency
     : Balanced positions in USD/CNY, leveraging exchange rate fluctuations or cross-border interest rate spreads; if RMB appreciation expectations are clear, enhance returns through “RMB-denominated overseas bonds”; also pay attention to interest rate arbitrage opportunities brought by “policy differences”.

6. Risk Management and Dynamic Adjustment
   • Continuously monitor policy rhythm: Federal Reserve white papers/rate cut windows, domestic MLF/RRR cut rhythm, and real estate risk events; after confirming “policy easing” signals, moderately extend duration or increase credit exposure.
   • Valuation and Liquidity
     : Maintain a cash ratio to deal with liquidity tightness or asset revaluation; if the market enters the “risk event-policy easing” sequence, quickly transfer cash to high-yield assets.
   • Stress Testing
     : Set scenarios of interest rate hikes/unusual inflation/strong U.S. dollar appreciation, adjust asset hedging ratios and leverage.

• Core Portfolio Logic
  : Not only retain yield advantages in a low-interest rate environment (duration and high-grade credit), but also capture structural upgrade dividends (AI, green, new infrastructure) through industry themes and cross-market assets, while maintaining a certain level of safe-haven and liquidity (gold, volatility strategies).
• Implementation Recommendations
  : Conduct phased position adjustments based on policy windows in various markets (China-US Two Sessions, FOMC, policy bond issuances); when necessary, activate the “in-depth research mode” to obtain more detailed Sino-US policy forecasts and industry research for fine-tuning allocations.

[0] Jinling API Data (Market data collected on December 16, 2025: S&P500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, SPY 60-day statistics, 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, gold price, U.S. sector rotation, etc.)

[1] Securities Times - “Next Year’s Monetary Policy May Attach More Importance to Stabilizing Expectations” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3536861.html)

[2] Sina Finance - “2026 Bond Market May Be Better Than Expected” (https://finance.sina.cn/2025-12-10/detail-inhaiqhx0311570.d.html?vt=4&cid=79649&node_id=79649)

[3] Sina Finance - “Morgan Stanley Closed-Door Meeting: 2026 Economic and Market Outlook” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockzmt/2025-11-17/doc-infxtkqa3542060.shtml?froms=ggmp)