Impact Analysis of Moutai's Supply-Side Inventory Control Strategy and Evaluation of Investment Value

Based on my analysis, I will deeply analyze the impact of Moutai’s supply-side inventory control strategy from two dimensions: reshaping the market competition pattern and long-term investment value.

: Moutai’s stock price is currently around 1422 yuan [0], with a 52-week fluctuation range of 1383.18-1657.99 yuan, down 4.44% year-to-date. This relatively weak performance reflects the market’s concerns about the prosperity of the liquor industry.

:

• Supply Contraction
  : Suspend shipment of all products until January 1, 2026, equivalent to supply-side reform before the traditional sales season
• Accelerated De-stocking
  : Force dealers to digest inventory by controlling channel supply volume, improving channel inventory structure
• Price Stabilization
  : Reduced supply helps stabilize terminal prices and prevent further price declines

:

• Channel Specialization
  : Reducing non-standard products helps dealers focus on core products and improve channel efficiency
• Strengthened Price Control
  : Reduce product category complexity to facilitate price monitoring and management
• Brand Value Enhancement
  : Strengthen the scarcity and brand value of core products through product line streamlining

From the perspective of financial data, Moutai still maintains a strong fundamental [0]:

• Outstanding Profitability
  : Net profit margin 51.51%, operating profit margin 71.37%
• Sound Financial Health
  : Current ratio 6.62, ROE up to 36.48%
• Low Debt Risk
  : Financial analysis shows it is in the low-risk category [0]

According to DCF valuation analysis [0], Moutai’s intrinsic value range is:

• Conservative Scenario
  : 1,088.46 yuan (-23.5%)
• Base Scenario
  : 1,576.94 yuan (+10.9%)
• Optimistic Scenario
  : 2,565.16 yuan (+80.4%)

The current stock price of 1422 yuan is in the lower-middle position of the valuation range, with a certain margin of safety.

:

• Spring Festival Peak Season Effect
  : The stock-out measure prepares for the Spring Festival peak season, which is expected to achieve both volume and price increases
• Inventory Cycle Improvement
  : After channel de-stocking, replenishment demand will support sales
• Policy Support Expectation
  : Consumption stimulus policies may benefit high-end liquor

:

• Brand Moat
  : As the No.1 liquor brand, Moutai has irreplaceable scarcity
• Consumption Upgrade Trend
  : Expansion of the middle class supports demand for high-end liquor
• Inflation Hedge Attribute
  : High-end liquor has the characteristic of preserving and increasing value

:

• Macroeconomic Downturn
  : Slow economic growth affects high-end consumption demand
• Policy Regulatory Risk
  : Uncertainty of anti-monopoly and price control policies
• Industry Cyclicality
  : The liquor industry has obvious cyclical characteristics

Based on current price and fundamental analysis, Moutai has long-term allocation value:

• Extremely High Financial Health
  : All financial indicators are leading in the industry
• Relatively Reasonable Valuation
  : Compared with historical valuation levels, current valuation is not high
• Stable Industry Position
  : As an industry leader, it has pricing power and brand premium capability

:

• Focus on Inventory Control Effect
  : Closely track the improvement effect of stock-out measures on channel inventory and prices
• Seize Peak Season Catalysts
  : Transactional opportunities may appear around the Spring Festival
• Technical Support
  : Current price is close to the annual low, and there is a rebound demand in technical aspects

:

• Current Timing
  : Stock price is at a relatively low level, and valuation is attractive
• Quarterly Focus
  : Focus on Q4 and Q1 financial reports to evaluate the actual effect of inventory control measures
• Annual Strategy
  : As a long-term core position, you can build positions in batches on dips

Moutai’s supply-side inventory control strategy is a forward-looking strategic measure. It may put pressure on sales in the short term, but in the long term, it helps:

1. Reshape Market Pattern
   : Optimize channel structure through supply-side reform and strengthen brand value
2. Enhance Investment Value
   : Improve supply-demand relationship and lay the foundation for long-term value growth
3. Strengthen Competitive Barriers
   : Further consolidate the leading position in the high-end liquor market

Based on the current stock price level of 1422 yuan and stable fundamentals, Moutai still has good long-term investment value. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the implementation effect of the inventory control strategy and seize the opportunity to layout on dips.

[0] Jinling API Data (Stock Price, Financial Data, DCF Valuation, Technical Analysis)
[1] Zhihu - “2025 Moutai Price List” (https://www.zhihu.com/tardis/zm/art/16962126776)