Goldman Sachs 2026 12% Earnings Growth Forecast: Market Context and Peer Comparisons

On December 16, 2025, Sara Naison-Tarajano, global head of capital markets at Goldman Sachs Private Wealth Management, presented a 2026 earnings growth forecast of 12% during an interview on CNBC’s “Money Movers” [1]. This projection is slightly conservative compared to peer forecasts: Bank of America anticipates 14% growth, while JPMorgan Chase expects 13-15% for the same period [2].

On the day of the forecast, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) traded down 0.54% (from an open of $679.23 to a close of $675.57) [0]. This decline occurred amid a three-day downward trend for SPY, with drops of 0.93% (Dec 12), 0.73% (Dec 15), and 0.54% (Dec 16) [0]. While the exact causal link is unconfirmed, the relatively modest forecast compared to consensus estimates could have contributed to the day’s negative market sentiment, as no other major concurrent negative news events were identified.

1. Consensus Divergence
   : Goldman Sachs’ 12% forecast is lower than peer projections, which may signal unstated concerns about potential economic headwinds that peers are less focused on [2].
2. Market Sentiment Shift
   : The three consecutive days of decline in SPY suggests building investor skepticism about near-term growth prospects, which the conservative forecast may have amplified [0].
3. Information Gap Risks
   : Critical details remain unconfirmed, including whether the forecast applies to the S&P 500, global equities, or a specific subset of stocks, as well as the sectors or drivers (e.g., AI, consumer spending) expected to lead growth [1].

• Forecast Sensitivity
  : All earnings projections are contingent on macroeconomic variables (e.g., Federal Reserve policy, GDP growth, inflation) that may shift over time, affecting the accuracy of forecasts [0].
• Consensus Divergence Concerns
  : The gap between Goldman Sachs’ forecast and peer projections could raise questions about unforeseen economic challenges, potentially impacting market sentiment further [2].
• Incomplete Context
  : The limited available interview content means nuanced insights or risks mentioned by Naison-Tarajano are not yet publicly available [1].

• Peer Optimism
  : Higher growth forecasts from Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase indicate potential market optimism if macroeconomic conditions align with their assumptions [2].
• Clarifying Context
  : A full transcript of the interview (once available) may provide clearer guidance on growth drivers and family offices’ expected market role, helping refine outlook assessments [1].

This analysis synthesizes publicly available details from the December 16, 2025, Goldman Sachs forecast and related market data. Key points include:

• Goldman Sachs’ 2026 earnings growth forecast: 12% [1]
• Peer forecasts: Bank of America (14%), JPMorgan Chase (13-15%) [2]
• SPY performance on December 16: -0.54% (open: $679.23, close: $675.57) [0]
• Unconfirmed details: Forecast scope, growth drivers, and family offices’ market role [1]

No prescriptive investment recommendations are provided; this information is intended to support decision-making with relevant context and data.