Analysis of Ed Yardeni’s ‘Funky’ Labor Market Assessment Following Delayed November 2025 Jobs Report

On December 16, 2025, Ed Yardeni (President of Yardeni Research) joined CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” to discuss the long-delayed November 2025 U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which was released that same day [event content]. The report’s delay stemmed from a 43-day federal government shutdown, which disrupted data collection and raised questions about its accuracy [1].

Key metrics from the November jobs report included:

• Non-farm payrolls: +64,000 (above the 45,000–50,000 consensus estimate) [1][2]
• Unemployment rate: 4.6% (a four-year high, up from 4.4% in October) [2][3]
• Average hourly earnings: +3.5% YoY (slightly below the 3.6% consensus) [3]

The market initially responded positively, with S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq futures rising 0.12–0.14% immediately after the report’s release at 8:31 AM ET [2]. However, by close, indices showed mixed results: the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.23%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) declined 0.38%, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained 0.03% [0].

Contextually, U.S. Treasury yields had fallen ahead of the report, with the 10-year yield at 4.168% (down 1 basis point) [3]. The Fed had already cut rates three times in late 2025 due to employment growth concerns, though the shutdown had limited hard data to support these decisions [4]. Prior to the report, the CME FedWatch Tool priced a 78% chance of a January 2026 rate cut [5]. Yardeni’s “funky” characterization likely refers to the report’s conflicting signals: moderate job gains alongside a rising unemployment rate.

1. Data integrity concerns
   : The shutdown’s 43-day delay and extended survey collection period may have distorted the report’s metrics, complicating the interpretation of real labor market trends [1].
2. Hidden labor force dynamics
   : The disconnect between job gains and rising unemployment could reflect an increase in labor force participation (more people seeking work), a factor Yardeni may have implicitly referenced with his “funky” remark.
3. Market uncertainty prevails
   : The mixed market reaction (initial futures gains vs. mixed closes) highlights investor ambiguity about how the Fed will interpret the conflicting labor data [2][0].

• Data reliability risk
  : The shutdown’s impact on data collection raises concerns about the report’s accuracy, which could lead to flawed Fed policy decisions or market volatility [1].
• Fed policy uncertainty
  : The mixed labor signals (moderate job growth vs. rising unemployment) may delay or alter expected rate cuts, increasing market volatility [4].
• Monitoring labor force participation
  : If the rising unemployment rate is driven by increased labor force participation (a positive long-term trend), it could signal a more resilient labor market than the headline rate suggests—an opportunity for stakeholders to reevaluate economic projections.

This analysis synthesizes Ed Yardeni’s “funky” labor market assessment, the delayed November 2025 jobs report’s mixed metrics, and the subsequent market reaction. The shutdown’s impact on data integrity, combined with conflicting labor signals, creates uncertainty for Fed policy and investor sentiment. Stakeholders should monitor additional labor market data releases to confirm trends and assess the report’s long-term implications, while remaining cognizant of the shutdown’s potential impact on data reliability.