Analysis of Asset Allocation Strategies Amid Sino-US Monetary Policy Divergence

In 2026, the monetary policies of China and the US show obvious divergence characteristics:

• Monetary and fiscal policies tend to be conservative, focusing on bottom-line support
• Policy focus shifts to resolving structural contradictions, especially technological progress and tax reform
• Sustainability of AI investment becomes a key policy focus
• Local government revenue structure transformation is advancing

• Fiscal discipline is relatively lost, adopting a dual monetary and fiscal easing path
• Based on market data, US stocks have performed relatively stably recently, with the S&P 500’s 30-day volatility at 0.79%[0]

• Stock price: HK$597.50 (December 16, 2025)[0]
• Market capitalization: HK$5.43 trillion
• P/E ratio: 24.43x
• ROE (Return on Equity): 20.59%
• Net profit margin: 29.54%

• Year-to-date return: 43.63%
• 1-year return: 47.31%
• 3-year return: 98.58%[0]

Based on data analysis from June to December 2025, Tencent Holdings shows:

• Total return: 20.99%
• Annualized volatility: 23.52%
• Maximum drawdown: -11.22%[0]

• Current price: $55.08/bbl (-3.06% daily drop)[0]
• 52-week range: $55.04-$80.77/bbl
• Period return: 10.03%
• Annualized volatility:30.58%
• Maximum drawdown:-16.80%[0]

• Period return:-21.64%
• Annualized volatility:18.89%
• Maximum drawdown:-24.59%[0]

Against the backdrop of policy divergence, the investment logic for commodities needs to be re-examined:

1. Crude Oil Market
   : Supported by US easing policies, but faces pressure from slowing Chinese demand
2. Precious Metals
   : Safe-haven function strengthens amid policy uncertainty, but rising real interest rates pose pressure
3. Industrial Metals
   : China’s economic structural adjustment affects demand structure; demand for high-tech related metals remains relatively stable

###1. Tech Stock Allocation Logic

• Tech stocks like Tencent benefit from China’s AI policy support
• High ROE (20.59%) reflects strong profitability
• Relatively low volatility (23.52%) vs crude oil (30.58%)

• Changes in policy regulatory environment
• Escalation of Sino-US tech competition
• Impact of macroeconomic slowdown

###2. Commodity Allocation Strategy

• Crude oil: Moderate allocation, benefiting from US easing policies
• Gold: Cautious allocation, monitor changes in real interest rates
• Industrial metals: Selective allocation, focus on new energy and high-tech related varieties

###3. Risk Management Framework

• Tencent Holdings provides relatively stable tech stock exposure
• Commodities provide inflation protection and hedging functions
• Recommended allocation ratio: Tech stocks 40-50%, commodities20-30%, other assets20-40%

• Use policy divergence for cross-market hedging
• Monitor exchange rate risks: RMB vs USD exchange rate fluctuations
• Commodity futures and options strategies to manage price risks

• Changes in Sino-US trade relations
• Adjustments to China’s tech regulatory policies
• Sustainability of US fiscal policy

• Uncertainty in global economic recovery
• Escalation of geopolitical conflicts
• Changes in inflation expectations

• Increased market volatility leading to liquidity tightening
• Seasonal characteristics of commodity markets

Against the backdrop of 2026 Sino-US monetary policy divergence, the following strategies are recommended:

1. Core Allocation
   : Center on high-quality tech stocks like Tencent to capture the dividends of China’s technological progress
2. Tactical Allocation
   : Moderately allocate to commodities to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities from policy divergence
3. Risk Management
   : Establish a sound risk control system and dynamically adjust positions

Based on historical data analysis, Tencent Holdings shows relatively better risk-adjusted return characteristics, with a Sharpe ratio superior to commodity assets, making it suitable as the core allocation of an investment portfolio[0].