Analysis of the Impact of China's Commercial Aerospace Policy Evolution on Investment Opportunities

: During this period, China began to tentatively open up peripheral areas of the aerospace industry. Starting from 2007, the government allowed private enterprises to participate in limited ways in non-core links of the aerospace industry, mainly focusing on peripheral areas such as ground equipment manufacturing and aerospace application services. Policies in this phase were relatively cautious, with the main purpose of evaluating the feasibility of market-oriented mechanisms in the aerospace field.

:

• Investment Scale
  : Small, mainly from angel investment and early-stage venture capital
• Investment Areas
  : Ground equipment, aerospace materials, basic components, etc.
• Investment Logic
  : Policy-oriented investment, mainly试探性布局 (tentative layout), with long expected investment returns

: 2014 was called the “breakthrough year” of China’s commercial aerospace by the industry [1]. The State Council issued policy directives, opening key areas of the national aerospace industry to private investment for the first time, including earth observation and launch services [1]. This policy breakthrough marked China’s commercial aerospace shift from peripheral exploration to core area opening.

:

• Policy Dividend Explosion
  : Starting from 2014, hundreds of Chinese aerospace startups supported by venture capital emerged in fields such as launch, earth observation, satellite communications, and on-orbit services [1]
• Surge in Investment Scale
  : Capital markets’ attention to commercial rockets increased significantly
• Transformation of Investment Logic
  : From tentative investment to strategic layout; investors began to focus on technical barriers and commercialization prospects

: In 2019, China provided greater regulatory clarity for commercial launch companies; in 2022, it further opened procurement and research projects to private companies [1]. The policy focus in this phase was to establish a standardized development environment for commercial aerospace to ensure healthy and orderly industry development.

:

• More Rational Investment
  : From hype to value investment, focusing on enterprises’ actual technical and commercialization capabilities
• Deepened Industrial Chain Investment
  : From single enterprise investment to overall layout of upstream and downstream industrial chains
• Mature Investment Logic
  : Focus on multi-dimensional evaluation of technical strength, commercialization capabilities, compliance, etc.

: In 2023, China officially designated commercial aerospace as a “strategic emerging industry” [1], triggering many local governments to actively cultivate local commercial aerospace industries. In 2024, commercial aerospace appeared in the government work report for the first time [2], marking a further提升 (提升) of its strategic status. In 2025, the China National Space Administration began formulating the 2026-2035 commercial aerospace development plan [1], integrating commercial aerospace into the national overall aerospace architecture [2].

:

• National Strategic Investment
  : Investment logic shifts from pure commercial returns to equal emphasis on national strategic value and commercial returns
• Full Industrial Chain Investment
  : From point investment to full industrial chain and full life cycle investment
• International Layout
  : Focus on the global competitiveness and international market opportunities of China’s commercial aerospace

Early investments were more speculative behaviors to seize policy opportunities, while current investments are more long-term layouts based on national strategies. Investors began to focus on enterprises’ strategic value in the national aerospace system, not just short-term financial returns.

The investment logic has shifted from breakthroughs in single enterprises or single technical points to the construction of the entire commercial aerospace ecosystem. This includes investment layouts across the entire industrial chain such as launch services, satellite manufacturing, ground equipment, and application services.

Early investments focused more on technical breakthroughs themselves, while current investments focus more on technical applications and commercialization prospects. Investors began to attach importance to enterprises’ market positioning, customer needs, and profit models.

With the improvement of China’s commercial aerospace technical strength, investment horizons have expanded from domestic markets to global competition. Investors began to focus on Chinese enterprises’ competitiveness in international markets and overseas expansion potential.

China’s communication satellites are expected to account for most of all Chinese satellites by the end of 2025 [1]. Five companies (Shanghai Aerospace Communication, China Satellite Network, Huawei, Hongqing Technology, GalaxySpace) may launch a total of about 54,000 satellites in the next decade to provide low-orbit Internet connections [1].

With further policy opening, commercial launch services will usher in greater market opportunities, especially the demand for small and micro satellite launches will grow rapidly.

The application of satellites in agriculture, environmental protection, transportation, urban management and other fields will deepen, providing investors with rich application scenario investment opportunities.

Policy-driven civil-military integration will provide more market opportunities for commercial aerospace enterprises, especially in national defense and national security-related fields.

1. Focus on Policy Dividends
   : Closely follow national and local government support policies for commercial aerospace, and seize policy-driven investment opportunities

2. Attach Importance to Technical Barriers
   : Focus on investing in leading enterprises with core technical barriers and independent innovation capabilities

3. Build Investment Portfolios
   : Diversify risks and enjoy the growth dividends of the entire industrial chain through portfolio investments in upstream and downstream industrial chains

4. Long-Term Investment Perspective
   : Commercial aerospace investment has a long return cycle, requiring a long-term investment perspective and patience

5. International Layout
   : Focus on enterprises with international potential and share the dividends of China’s commercial aerospace globalization

The policy evolution of China’s commercial aerospace has developed from tentative peripheral opening to national layout as a strategic emerging industry, and the investment logic has also shifted from opportunity-driven to strategy-driven, from single-point breakthrough to ecosystem construction. This transformation has laid a solid foundation for the long-term development of China’s commercial aerospace and also provided investors with more abundant and stable investment opportunities.

[1] War on the Rocks - “Eastern Stars Rising: The Rise of China’s Commercial Space Industry” (https://warontherocks.com/2025/07/eastern-stars-rising-the-rise-of-chinas-commercial-space-industry/)
[2] SpaceNews - “China moves to integrate commercial space into its national space development plan” (https://spacenews.com/china-moves-to-integrate-commercial-space-into-its-national-space-development-plan/)
[3] SpaceNews - “China highlights commercial space sector in government work report” (https://spacenews.com/china-highlights-commercial-space-sector-in-government-work-report/)