Analysis of the Effectiveness of Kweichow Moutai's Product Distribution Suspension and Volume Control Measures

According to the latest market data, Kweichow Moutai is currently facing severe price pressure. Since 2025, demand in the premium baijiu market has continued to weaken, and the retail price of Feitian Moutai has shown a unilateral downward trend [2]. On December 10, the 2025 53% ABV 500ml Feitian Moutai loose bottle wholesale reference price fell to 1500 yuan per bottle, hitting a historic low, only 1 yuan away from the official guidance price of 1499 yuan [2].

From the perspective of stock price performance, Moutai’s stock price is also under pressure. As of December 16, 2025, the stock price closed at 1422.00 yuan, down 4.44% year-to-date, with a 52-week high of 1657.99 yuan and a low of 1383.18 yuan [0]. The company’s financial situation remains sound, with a return on equity of 36.48%, net profit margin of 51.51%, current ratio of 6.62, and overall risk classification as low risk [0].

According to Securities Times reports, Kweichow Moutai’s volume control measures cover two major dimensions:

• Stop distributing all Moutai products to dealers in December 2025 (prepayment completed)
• Resume distribution on January 1, 2026
• The purpose is to reduce the burden on dealers during the year-end capital tight period and prevent panic selling

• Significantly cut non-standard product quotas in 2026
• 15-year Moutai cut by 30%, Zodiac Moutai cut by 50%, Glazed Treasure completely suspended
• Reduce the supply of products that reduce dealer channel profits from the source [1]

After the volume control measures were introduced, the market responded positively. On December 13, the original case market price of Feitian Moutai was 1520 yuan per bottle, up 25 yuan from the previous day; the loose bottle market price was 1500 yuan per bottle, up 20 yuan from the previous day [1]. On December 14, prices continued to rise sharply: the 2025 Feitian loose bottle wholesale reference price was 1570 yuan per bottle, and the original case price was 1590 yuan per bottle, both up 70 yuan from the previous day [3].

Dealers generally hold a positive attitude towards the policy, believing that ‘the volume control policy is definitely beneficial to dealers in the short term’. Some dealers said: ‘Some previously wait-and-see customers have placed urgent orders because they are worried about further price increases later’, and reported: ‘Not only has Feitian’s price soared, but even the premium Snake Year Moutai and kilogram Moutai are out of stock’ [3].

1. Capital Pressure Relief:
   The distribution suspension measure directly reduces the burden on dealers with tight capital at the end of the year, avoiding panic selling to repay loans [1]
2. Accelerated Inventory Destocking:
   Price recovery stimulates consumers’ ‘buy when rising, not when falling’ psychology, accelerating inventory turnover
3. Channel Confidence Restoration:
   The manufacturer’s active price control has boosted dealer confidence, avoiding the vicious cycle of further price deterioration

Although the short-term effect is obvious, in the long run, attention still needs to be paid to:

• The reduction of non-standard product quotas may affect the profit structure of dealers
• Whether the demand for premium baijiu can continue under the consumption downgrade trend [2]
• The industry as a whole is still in a deep adjustment period, and the fundamental pressure has not fundamentally changed [2]

1. Policy Determination Reflected:
   Moutai Chairman Chen Hua stated at the shareholder meeting that ‘we will not sacrifice long-term development for short-term interests’, showing the company’s determination to maintain price stability [3]
2. Improved Supply-Demand Relationship:
   Volume control measures directly reduce market supply, which is conducive to price stability
3. Year-end Consumption Peak Season:
   The traditional holiday consumption peak period helps maintain price levels

1. Slowdown in Consumption Upgrade:
   Residents’ rational consumption and self-reward consumption have gradually become dominant, and business consumption continues to be under pressure [2]
2. Industry Consolidation Stage:
   The baijiu industry is currently in an accelerated consolidation stage, and social inventory has entered the ‘passive destocking’ stage [2]
3. Macroeconomic Impact:
   Industry development is highly related to the macroeconomic environment and business consumption activity [2]

Moutai’s current P/E ratio is 19.79x, which is in a relatively reasonable range. Considering the company’s strong brand moat and stable profitability, the current valuation is attractive [0].

1. Wholesale Price Trend:
   The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai is an important observation indicator, and its stability needs to be continuously monitored [2]
2. Inventory Destocking Progress:
   The degree of social inventory destocking directly affects future price expectations
3. Consumption Recovery Strength:
   The recovery degree of high-end consumption demand will determine long-term growth potential

Kweichow Moutai’s product distribution suspension and volume control measures have shown positive effects in the short term, successfully stopping further price declines and achieving a rapid rebound. These measures have effectively alleviated dealers’ capital and inventory pressures, and are conducive to stabilizing terminal prices in the short term.

However, it should be noted that these measures mainly solve supply-side problems, while the core challenge facing the baijiu industry lies in weak demand on the demand side. In the environment where consumption downgrade and rational consumption have become dominant, Moutai still needs to adapt to the new market environment through product innovation, marketing strategy adjustments, and other means.

For investors, it is recommended to pay close attention to the following key nodes:

1. Performance during the Spring Festival consumption peak season
2. Price stability after the resumption of volume control measures in January 2026
3. Specific implementation of non-standard product structure adjustment by the company

Overall, Moutai’s fundamentals remain sound, with a deep brand moat. The current stock price adjustment may provide a good allocation opportunity for long-term investors, but short-term fluctuations brought by industry adjustments still need to be vigilant.

---

Chart showing Kweichow Moutai’s 2025 stock price trend, including 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, as well as the 1650 yuan dealer shipment price lower limit reference line.

[0] Jinling API Data - Kweichow Moutai Company Overview, Stock Price Data, Financial Analysis
[1] Securities Times - “Rumor: Moutai will launch volume control measures? Feitian price rebounds!” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3539262.html)
[2] Sina Finance - “Feitian Moutai wholesale price hits a new historic low, falling to 1500 yuan, only 1 yuan away from the official guidance price” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2025-12-10/doc-inhaicte9952140.shtml)
[3] Sina Finance - “Feitian Moutai wholesale price rebounds, retail average price exceeds 1800 yuan, and sales are also increasing” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-15/doc-inhavsep2564886.shtml)