Analysis of the Impact of China's Commercial Aerospace Policy Evolution on the Investment Value of Related Listed Companies

China’s commercial aerospace policy evolution presents a clear “development-security” balance logic, going through four key stages:

1. Tentative Opening Phase (2007-2013)
   : Policy exploration as the main focus, the embryonic stage of commercial aerospace
2. Accelerated Opening Phase (2014-2018)
   : Policy advancement accelerated, market became active
3. Orderly Standardization Phase (2019-2023)
   : Equal emphasis on standardization and support, industrial chain gradually improved
4. Strategic Emerging Industry Phase (2023-present)
   : Officially upgraded to a national strategy, entering an explosive period

Commercial aerospace has upgraded from “industry supplement” to “new growth engine”, which brings three core investment logics:

• Increased Policy Certainty
  : The 2023 Central Economic Work Conference explicitly identified commercial aerospace as a strategic emerging industry for the first time, with unprecedented policy support
• Market Space Explosion
  : The scale of China’s commercial aerospace market is expected to reach 2.8 trillion yuan by 2025 and is expected to grow to 7.8 trillion yuan by 2030 [2]
• Industrial Chain Maturity
  : From upstream R&D and launch to downstream operation and application, each link can create a 100-billion-yuan-level market [3]

From the above chart, it can be seen that major aerospace concept stocks have performed strongly since 2023:

1. China Satellite (600118.SS)
   : Rose from 21.56 yuan to 54.30 yuan, with an increase of 151.86% [0]
2. Aerospace Science and Technology (000901.SZ)
   : Rose from 8.16 yuan to 25.50 yuan, with an increase of 212.50% [0]
3. Aerospace Mechanical and Electrical (600151.SS)
   : Stock price achieved a 100% growth, with a current market value of 24.64 billion yuan [0]

• Market value: 6.421 billion USD
• P/E ratio: 1117.34 times (high valuation)
• Current stock price: 54.30 yuan
• 6-month increase: 100.59% [0]

• Market value: 2.035 billion USD
• P/E ratio: 122.53 times
• Current stock price: 25.50 yuan
• Year-to-date increase: 139.44% [0]

• Market value: 2.464 billion USD
• Current stock price: 17.18 yuan
• Year-to-date increase: 122.25% [0]

According to Zhiyan Consulting data:

• 2023 China commercial aerospace market scale: 658.22 billion yuan
• 2024 market scale: about 713.32 billion yuan
• 2025 estimated scale: about 781.04 billion yuan [1]

Explosive growth in investment and financing scale:

• 2023 investment and financing amount: 4.775 billion yuan
• 2024 investment and financing amount: 14.021 billion yuan (surge of 193.5%) [2]

• Hainan Commercial Aerospace Launch Site completed, filling the gap in the industrial chain
• 2024 China conducted 68 rocket launches with a success rate of 97% [1]

• Navigation and location services: 581.5 billion yuan (largest proportion)
• Satellite communication: 88.85 billion yuan
• Commercial remote sensing satellites: 17.03 billion yuan [1]

• Liquid oxygen methane rocket engine made breakthroughs
• Progress in reusable technology
• Satellite resolution reached the international leading level of “better than 0.5m” [3]

1. Valuation Risk
   : Current P/E ratios are generally high, there is a correction risk
2. Technology Risk
   : Aerospace technology R&D cycle is long, investment is large
3. Competition Risk
   : There is a gap with international giants like SpaceX
4. Policy Risk
   : Although policy supports, supervision is tightening

• Focus on policy catalyst events
• Allocate companies in application segments like satellite internet and satellite remote sensing
• Pay attention to targets in the launch service industrial chain

• Focus on companies with core technical advantages
• Pay attention to companies with integrated industrial chain layout
• Prioritize commercial aerospace enterprises listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board

1. Satellite Internet
   : Construction of China Satellite Network and Qianfan Constellation
2. Launch Services
   : Low-cost, high-density launch capabilities
3. Satellite Applications
   : Emerging application scenarios like navigation enhancement and direct satellite connection for mobile phones

2025-2027 will be the key three years for commercial aerospace to move from “being able to go to space” to “being used well”. With:

• China Satellite Network and Qianfan Constellation entering the batch launch phase
• Full operation of Hainan Commercial Aerospace Launch Site
• Landing of emerging application scenarios like space computing power and low-orbit navigation enhancement

Commercial aerospace is expected to spawn a trillion-yuan-level market, and related listed companies will usher in a new round of value revaluation opportunities.

[0] Gilin API Data - Stock price and financial data
[1] Zhiyan Consulting - 《2025 China Commercial Aerospace Industry Market Development Potential and Investment Risk Forecast Report》(https://m.chyxx.com/industry/1223343.html)
[2] Yicai - 《Birth of a Trillion-yuan Market, Commercial Aerospace May Have Reached the Wind Outlet!》(https://m.yicai.com/news/102945167.html)
[3] Beijing Municipal Government Official Website - 《Ten Years of One Arrow, Commercial Aerospace Sets Off Again》(https://kw.beijing.gov.cn/xwdt/kcyx/xwdtcyfz/202501/t20250107_3982741.html)