Analysis of Temu's Semi-Managed Mode Transformation and 2025 Break-Even Prospects

Based on current data analysis,

. The plan to reach break-even in the U.S. market in Q4 is relatively optimistic, and the transformation to the semi-managed mode will be a key driver.

According to the latest data, PDD Holdings currently has a market capitalization of $152.74 billion [0], and a stock price of $109.16 [0]. The company achieved revenue of $15.21 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9% [0], but has warned that growth may slow down [1].

• GMV Share
  : Temu currently accounts for about 9% of PDD’s overall GMV
• Operating Margin
  : -8% (still in loss)
• U.S. Semi-Managed Mode Share
  : Has reached 70%
• 2025 GMV Forecast
  : Year-on-year growth of 43% to RMB 530 billion

1. Cost Structure Optimization
   : The semi-managed mode significantly reduces logistics costs from 15 units (full management) to 8 units
2. Localized Services
   : Improves delivery efficiency and user experience through local seller programs
3. Profit Margin Improvement
   : The semi-managed mode can achieve a profit margin of 12%, far higher than the full-managed mode’s 5%

Temu recently launched the Shopify Merchant App, allowing Shopify merchants to sell products directly on the Temu platform [2], which further promotes the semi-managed and localized strategy. The app supports local seller programs in more than 30 markets [2], including key markets such as the U.S., UK, Germany, and Spain.

• Rapid Growth of International Business
  : Expected to grow from RMB 80 billion in 2023 to RMB 530 billion in 2025
• U.S. Market Leadership
  : The MAU gap with Amazon is only 1.3x, indicating that the user base has reached scale
• Category Expansion
  : Supports more than 600 product categories, covering daily necessities to high-end goods

1. Intense Competitive Environment
   : PDD has warned that the Chinese consumer market is highly competitive and growth may slow down [1]
2. Regulatory Risks
   : The EU conducted a surprise inspection of Temu’s Dublin headquarters to investigate possible unfair subsidies [3]
3. Policy Uncertainty
   : U.S. policy changes may affect import costs and operating models

1. High GMV Growth
   : A 43% annual growth rate provides a foundation for revenue expansion
2. Local Seller Commissions
   : The semi-managed mode generates higher commission income
3. Value-Added Services
   : Increased revenue from value-added services such as logistics and payments

1. Logistics Cost Reduction
   : The semi-managed mode reduces international logistics expenses
2. Marketing Efficiency Improvement
   : Increased brand awareness reduces customer acquisition costs
3. Operational Scale Effect
   : GMV growth leads to the dilution of operating costs

According to the analysis model, Temu’s international business is expected to achieve break-even in Q4 2025, which is consistent with the company’s expectations. Key drivers include:

• The semi-managed mode share further increases to over 80%
• Localization rate in the U.S. market reaches 60%
• Average order value increases by 25%

1. Geopolitical Risks
   : Tensions between China and the U.S. may affect market access in the U.S.
2. Regulatory Compliance Costs
   : EU investigations may increase compliance costs and operational complexity [3]
3. Intensified Competition
   : Competitors such as Amazon and Shein are increasing their investment

1. Macroeconomic Environment
   : Weak global consumption may affect GMV growth
2. Exchange Rate Fluctuations
   : Changes in the RMB exchange rate affect profits from international business
3. Technology Investment
   : AI and logistics technology investments may affect profit margins in the short term

• The semi-managed mode transformation has achieved significant results, accounting for 70% of U.S. business
• Strong GMV growth expectations support revenue expansion
• Deepened localization strategy improves user experience and profitability

• Actual break-even performance in the U.S. market in Q4 2025
• EU investigation results and their impact on European business
• Progress of semi-managed mode promotion in other markets

. However, geopolitical risks and regulatory challenges still need close attention. Investors are advised to focus on the profit performance of the U.S. market in Q4 and the promotion effect of the semi-managed mode in global markets.

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[0] Gilin API Data - PDD Holdings Real-Time Stock Price and Financial Data
[1] Bloomberg - “Temu-Owner PDD Warns of Slowdown in Tough China Consumer Arena” (2025-11-18)
[2] PR Newswire - “Temu Expands Marketplace Access for Small Businesses with New App for Shopify Merchants” (2025-12-15)
[3] Bloomberg - “Temu’s Europe HQ Raided as Part of EU Foreign-Subsidy Probe” (2025-12-10)