Impact Analysis of Double-Digit Growth in Commercial Vehicle Production and Sales in November on Investment Opportunities in the A-Share Auto Sector

According to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, commercial vehicle production and sales data in November 2025 performed brightly:

• Monthly Data
  : Production 388,000 units (+18.6%), Sales 392,000 units (+24.4%)
• Cumulative Data
  : Jan-Nov production 3.843 million units (+11.6%), Sales 3.87 million units (+10.4%)
• Broad-Based Growth
  : Both passenger and freight vehicles achieved double-digit growth, with a clear recovery trend in demand

Based on transaction data since November 2025 [0], the performance of major commercial vehicle stocks showed a divergent trend:

Stock	Initial Price	Final Price	Return Rate	Volatility	Investment Characteristics
King Long Motor	15.75 CNY	16.10 CNY	+2.22%	56.82%	Best performance, but high volatility
Great Wall Motor	22.69 CNY	22.55 CNY	-0.62%	20.22%	Relatively resilient, moderate volatility
Foton Motor	2.93 CNY	2.78 CNY	-5.12%	19.95%	Low volatility, relatively stable
JAC Motors	49.99 CNY	47.35 CNY	-5.28%	32.86%	Relatively weak performance

• Sustained improvement in production and sales data provides strong support for sector valuation
• Industry prosperity is picking up, which is expected to drive performance improvement of related companies
• Market pessimism towards the commercial vehicle sector is being corrected

According to industry analysis, policy support for China’s auto industry continues [1]:

• New energy vehicle rural market policy is being further promoted
• Trade-in subsidy policy effectively stimulates demand
• Commercial vehicle electrification transformation receives policy preference

###3.

• China’s commercial vehicles have significantly improved competitiveness in overseas markets
• According to market analysis, export volume is expected to maintain double-digit growth [2]
• Overseas market profit margins are usually 5-10 percentage points higher than domestic markets

###4.

• New Energy Commercial Vehicles
  : Accelerated electrification and intelligent transformation
• Intelligent Connected Technology
  : Application of new technologies such as autonomous driving and vehicle networking
• Special Purpose Vehicle Market
  : Strong demand in niche areas such as cold chain logistics and sanitation vehicles

###1.

• Although King Long Motor has the best performance, its high volatility of 56.82% needs to be treated with caution
• Significant differentiation within the sector increases the difficulty of individual stock selection

###2.

• Deutsche Bank analysis shows that China’s auto industry may face adjustments in 2026 [3]
• Changes in subsidy policies may affect demand

###3.

• During the new energy transformation period, competition between traditional car companies and new players intensifies
• Differences in technical route choices may lead to investment differentiation

1. Focus on Policy Catalysts
   : Focus on allocating leading enterprises that benefit from policy support
2. Seize Valuation Recovery
   : Select targets with improved fundamentals but still low valuations
3. Control Position Rhythm
   : Given sector volatility, it is recommended to build positions in batches

1. Focus on Transformation Leaders
   : Focus on companies that have successfully transformed to new energy
2. Layout Export Concepts
   : Pay attention to enterprises with high overseas business share and great growth potential
3. Focus on Technological Breakthroughs
   : Invest in companies with core technologies in areas such as intelligent connectivity and autonomous driving

• It is recommended to control the position of a single stock within 5-8%
• Set stop-loss levels and take profits/losses in a timely manner
• Closely monitor industry policy changes and company performance forecasts

The double-digit growth in commercial vehicle production and sales in November marks a significant improvement in the industry’s fundamentals, providing important support for investment in the A-share auto sector. Although current market performance is divergent, with the continuous release of policy dividends, the release of export growth potential, and accelerated new energy transformation, the commercial vehicle sector still has good long-term investment value.

: Fundamental improvement + Policy support + Export growth + Technological transformation. It is recommended to focus on leading enterprises with core competitiveness and transformation capabilities.

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[0] Gilin AI Data - A-share commercial vehicle stock transaction data and analysis
[1] Reuters - “How foreign carmakers can stay the course in China” (2025-12-02)
[2] Automotive News - “Geely targets 200,000 exports to Western Europe in 2027” (2025-11-24)
[3] Wall Street Journal - “China’s auto sector is likely to face a downturn in 2026” (2025-12-16)