Longzhou Co., Ltd. (002682.SZ) In-Depth Analysis and Valuation Bubble Assessment

Based on an in-depth analysis of Longzhou Co., Ltd. (002682.SZ), I will answer your questions from three dimensions: fundamental factors, valuation rationality, and the overall performance of commercial aerospace concept stocks.

According to the latest financial analysis data [0], Longzhou Co., Ltd.'s financial situation has significant risks:

• P/E Ratio
  : -16.24x (negative value indicates the company is in a loss state)
• ROE (Return on Equity)
  : -33.25% (far below the healthy level)
• Net Profit Margin
  : -15.94% (sustained losses)
• Current Ratio
  : 0.79 (below the safe level of 1.0)
• Quick Ratio
  : 0.70 (weak short-term debt repayment ability)

: High Risk [0]

From the company overview [0], Longzhou Co., Ltd. is mainly classified as

, not a pure commercial aerospace enterprise. This indicates that the company’s commercial aerospace concept is more of a conceptual speculation rather than supported by core business.

From the data from November 1 to December 16, 2025 [0]:

• Period Increase
  : +120.99% (from 4.86 yuan to 10.74 yuan)
• Volatility
  : 6.98% (high daily fluctuation)
• Maximum Single-Day Drop
  : -10.06% (close to the daily limit down level)
• Current Price
  : 10.74 yuan, down 9.97% on the day [0]

The stock price doubled in just over a month; such rapid growth often lacks solid performance support and is prone to sharp corrections. The daily limit down on December 16 is exactly a sign of this speculative bubble bursting.

Valuation analysis based on the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model shows [0]:

Scenario	Fair Value	Premium Relative to Current Price
Conservative Scenario	-7.29 yuan	-167.9%
Base Scenario	3.96 yuan	-63.1%
Optimistic Scenario	-19.11 yuan	-277.9%

: Even in the most optimistic scenario, the company’s intrinsic value is far below the current market price. The probability-weighted valuation is -7.48 yuan, meaning the current stock price of 10.74 yuan has a serious valuation bubble [0].

• Historical Revenue Growth Rate
  : -4.5% (sustained decline over the past 5 years) [0]
• EBITDA Margin
  : -0.7% (low operational efficiency) [0]
• Net Profit Margin
  : -9.6% (sustained loss state) [0]

From the search results, commercial aerospace concepts did experience a collective decline in December 2025. This reflects several key issues:

1. Over-speculation of concepts
   : Many companies use the banner of “commercial aerospace” but have limited actual business contributions
2. Increasing regulatory risks
   : Regulatory authorities have strengthened supervision over concept stock speculation
3. Capital outflows
   : Investors shift from high-risk concept stocks to more stable assets

Internationally, real commercial aerospace companies like Rocket Lab also face valuation doubts [1]. Some analysts believe such stocks are “crazy expensive”, with overvalued market capitalization but lack of profit support [1].

. Based on the following reasons:

1. Insufficient fundamental support
   : The company has sustained losses and deteriorating financial conditions
2. Excessive concept speculation
   : The proportion of commercial aerospace business may be very small
3. Valuation seriously deviates from intrinsic value
   : DCF analysis shows the stock price is overvalued by more than 60%
4. Technical top signal
   : The daily limit down after a rapid rise is a typical adjustment signal

1. Short-term
   : Avoid risks; do not recommend chasing highs or bottom-fishing
2. Mid-term
   : Wait for the company’s performance improvement and valuation to return to a reasonable range
3. Long-term
   : Pay attention to whether the company has substantial business transformation and profit improvement

As an emerging industry, commercial aerospace has broad prospects, but investors need to distinguish between real industry leaders and concept speculation stocks. It is recommended to focus on enterprises with core technologies, stable orders, and clear profit models, rather than pure theme concepts.

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[0] Gilin API Data - Longzhou Co., Ltd. financial data, stock price information, DCF valuation analysis
[1] Forbes - “Cryptocurrency Billionaire’s Space Startup In Talks For $2 Billion Valuation” (https://www.forbes.com/sites/annatong/2025/12/15/cryptocurrency-billionaires-space-startup-in-talks-for-2-billion-valuation/)
[2] TS2.tech - “Rocket Lab (RKLB) Stock Jumps as Neutron ‘Hungry Hippo’ Clears a Key Milestone” (https://ts2.tech/en/rocket-lab-rklb-stock-jumps-as-neutron-hungry-hippo-clears-a-key-milestone-dec-12-2025/)