Analysis of Asset Allocation Strategies Under the Background of Sino-US Structural Reforms in 2026

According to Goldman Sachs’ interpretation of the Central Economic Work Conference, China’s macro policy will be prudent in 2026, with a GDP growth target of about 5% and a CPI inflation target of about 2%[3]. Monetary policy will remain moderately loose, and fiscal policy will maintain a proactive stance, but compared to last year’s “unconventional counter-cyclical adjustment”, the pace of policy easing in 2026 will be more cautious and prudent.

• Consumption Stimulus: Domestic demand-oriented, boosting consumption in multiple aspects
• Real Estate Stability: Strengthening market stabilization measures, optimizing new supply
• Technological Innovation: Promoting the development of core technologies such as artificial intelligence
• Structural Reforms: Solving problems such as anti-involution and clearing arrears owed to enterprises

The US will pursue a dual fiscal and monetary easing path against the backdrop of mid-term elections, with AI becoming the main growth driver[5]. The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts after June 2025 until mid-2026[4]. Growth in technology spending, interest rate cuts, deregulation, and tax incentives will collectively shape the investment landscape in 2026[5].

1. Growth Slowdown
   : Both China and the US face economic增速放缓压力
2. Structural Contradictions
   : China needs to solve deep-seated problems such as technological innovation and tax reform
3. Policy Constraints
   : Traditional monetary fiscal policy space收窄
4. Market Volatility
   : Policy uncertainty increases market波动性

1. AI Technology Revolution
   : AI becomes the main growth driver of the US economy
2. Consumption Upgrade
   : China’s domestic demand market has huge potential
3. Commodities
   : Have allocation value in a low-inflation environment
4. Cross-market Arbitrage
   : Opportunities brought by Sino-US policy differences

• High-leverage real estate-related assets
• Cyclical traditional manufacturing
• Interest rate-sensitive financial assets
• High-growth valuation tech stocks

Current market data shows that the tech sector is the weakest (-1.40%), and the financial services sector is down 1.18%[6], reflecting market concerns about the macroeconomy.

• US AI Industry Chain
  : Chip design, cloud computing, software services
• China Digital Economy
  : AI applications, digital infrastructure, intelligent manufacturing
• Global Tech Leaders
  : Mature tech companies with cash flow and profitability

Gold as a safe-haven asset has performed prominently, rising 10.74% in the past 60 trading days, showing good anti-inflation and safe-haven properties[7]. In a low-growth low-inflation environment, commodities have unique allocation value.

• Precious Metals
  : Gold, silver as inflation hedging tools
• Industrial Metals
  : Benefiting from AI infrastructure construction demand
• Energy Commodities
  : Geopolitical risks supporting prices

The healthcare sector is currently the best-performing industry (+0.73%)[6], with defensive characteristics in a low-growth environment.

• US Market
  :40-50% (Technology, AI, Consumption)
• China Market
  :20-30% (Consumption, Healthcare, Structural Reform Beneficiary Stocks)
• Other Developed Markets
  :15-20% (European, Japanese Value Stocks)
• Emerging Markets
  :5-10% (Markets with potential for structural reforms)

• Equities
  :45-55% (Structural growth opportunities)
• Fixed Income
  :15-20% (High-grade bonds, inflation-protected bonds)
• Commodities
  :15-20% (Gold, industrial metals)
• Cash and Equivalents
  :5-10% (Liquidity management)
• Alternative Investments
  :5-10% (Private equity, hedge funds)

• Core Portfolio
  :65% (Broad-based index ETFs, high-quality stocks)
• Satellite Portfolio
  :35% (Thematic investment, regional investment, alternative assets)

• Quarterly Review
  : Adjust allocations based on economic data and policy changes
• Risk Control
  : Set stop-loss mechanisms to control portfolio volatility
• Rebalancing
  : Regularly rebalance the portfolio to maintain target allocations

1. AI Theme
   : US AI technology companies, Chinese AI application enterprises
2. Consumption Upgrade
   : China’s domestic demand consumption, high-end manufacturing
3. Green Transition
   : Clean energy, environmental protection technology
4. Healthcare
   : Biotechnology, medical devices

1. Policy Overshoot Risk
   : Sino-US policy coordination failure leading to severe market volatility
2. Technology Bubble Risk
   : Excessive AI investment leading to valuation bubbles
3. Geopolitical Risk
   : Further deterioration of Sino-US relations
4. Inflation Rebound Risk
   : Supply chain tensions or energy price increases

###应对策略

1. Diversification
   : Cross-market, cross-asset, cross-industry diversification
2. Risk Management
   : Set reasonable stop-losses to control position sizes
3. Dynamic Adjustment
   : Adjust strategies timely based on market changes
4. Long-term Perspective
   : Adhere to long-term investment philosophy and avoid short-term emotional decisions

• January-February
  : China’s provincial two sessions, observe local policy orientations
• March
  : National Two Sessions, clarify annual policy tone
• June
  : Federal Reserve meeting, assess interest rate policy direction
• November
  : US mid-term elections, focus on policy changes

• First Quarter
  : Adjust regional allocations based on policy signals
• Second Quarter
  : Adjust commodity allocations based on inflation data
• Third Quarter
  : Adjust technology allocations based on technological developments
• Fourth Quarter
  : Annual review and next year’s planning

In 2026, against the backdrop of Sino-US structural reforms, investors need to abandon traditional macroeconomic-driven investment logic and shift to structural opportunity-driven allocation strategies. The key points are:

1. Avoid Risks
   : Avoid traditional assets with high macro exposure
2. Seize Opportunities
   : Focus on structural opportunities such as AI, consumption upgrade, and commodities
3. Diversify Allocations
   : Cross-market, cross-asset, cross-industry diversification
4. Dynamic Management
   : Adjust timely based on policy changes and market conditions

Through this systematic asset allocation strategy, investors can achieve stable investment returns in the low-growth low-inflation new normal while effectively controlling investment risks.

[0] 金灵API Data - Market Index, Stock Price, Sector Performance Data
[1] Yahoo Finance - “PBoC: Continue to Implement Moderately Loose Monetary Policy and Do a Good Job in Real Estate Financial Macro-Prudential Management”
[2] Yahoo Finance - “Break 7 next year! Morgan Stanley: RMB is expected to appreciate in the next two years and will be symbolic…”
[3] Yahoo Finance - “Goldman Sachs Interprets China’s Central Economic Work Conference: 2026 Macro Policy is Prudent, Focusing on Consumption and Real Estate”
[4] Zhihu - “Barclays expects the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts after June 2025 until mid-2026”
[5] Yahoo Finance - “Wells Fargo Investment Institute: 2026 Poised for Markets Growth”
[6] 金灵API Data - Sector Performance Data
[7] 金灵API Data - Gold Price Data