COMEX Silver Market Analysis and Investment Strategy as of December 16, 2025

• As of Beijing time December 16, 2025, the latest quote for COMEX silver futures was approximately 62.87 USD/oz, with an intraday pullback of 0.72 USD, still close to the 52-week high. Last week’s trading volume reached the full-year production volume (204,585 contracts), but total open interest remained basically unchanged [0].
• The attached chart shows the silver price trend, trading volume changes, and gold-silver ratio (gold/silver price ratio) from 2024 to 2025. It can be seen that the price has shown an overall upward trend after breaking through 50 USD, with trading volume significantly increasing at key price levels. The gold-silver ratio is currently in a cooling phase but still far above the historical average of around 69:1 [0].
  

• According to the latest public data from CME/COMEX, the short positions held by the top five U.S. banks have decreased from 34,738 contracts in January 2025 to approximately 18,413 contracts, a reduction of nearly 47%. In an environment where silver has relatively limited liquidity and market expectations are mainly dominated by large institutions, such concentrated short position reductions usually indicate a re-evaluation of directional risks: market participants are switching to locking in profits near current prices or anticipating an upcoming bullish trend.
• The reduction in short positions also lowers the potential ‘short squeeze’ pressure, but it also reflects a ‘contrarian signal’ where shorts take the initiative to exit and longs gradually gain the upper hand amid long-short divergence. If silver continues to stay above the key technical level (50 USD) in the future, the willingness of shorts to cover positions will be further weakened, making price fluctuations more likely to be upward-biased.

• Technically (20/50-day moving averages and RSI data in the attached chart), the situation remains slightly positive. If the price stabilizes above 50 USD, the 20-year ‘remonetization’ narrative (including the compression of the gold-silver ratio to cyclical lows of 60-70) will attract more traditional asset allocation/ safe-haven funds [0].
• Fundamentally, the unchanged total open interest indicates that the inflow of new long positions is not yet sufficient, but the increased trading volume means that existing funds have strong trading意愿 at current prices. If the ‘remonetization’ logic progresses (e.g., the gold-silver ratio further approaches 60:1), the target price can be pushed to a higher range. Although the 300 USD figure is an extreme long-term theoretical upper limit, after a short-medium term breakthrough of 70/80 USD, the target should at least gradually move toward historical highs.

1. Trend Following
   : If the price守住 the 50 USD support and is accompanied by intraday volume, consider phased positioning (buy at current price/ pullback levels) and increase positions each time a historical high is broken. Stop loss can be set at 48-49 USD, with targets in the 70-80 USD range; follow up based on the situation after a breakthrough.
2. Conditional Hedge
   : Given that the gold-silver ratio has not fully returned to its long-term average, a conservative gold long/short portfolio can be held alongside silver long positions to capture relative value return benefits from the cooling of the gold-silver ratio.
3. Arbitrage/Options
   : Pay attention to the COMEX call option IV trend. During the short position reduction window, you can lock in time value by selling out-of-the-money put options, or buy higher-strike call options to capture breakout gains, but need to control time value and volatility risks.

• If the global macro environment shifts to rising real interest rates, a stronger USD, or the need to release cash for financial risks, a reverse squeeze may interrupt the bullish rhythm. Focus on FOMC trends and U.S. Treasury yields.
• Although short positions have decreased, liquidity is still concentrated in a few major banks. If position restructuring reverses suddenly, it will lead to volatility diffusion, so clear risk buffers need to be set.

For further detailed institutional positions, monthly reports, or more refined silver vs. macro asset comparison tables through in-depth research mode, I can assist in switching to that mode and continuing the analysis.

[0] Broker API data, including the latest real-time prices, trading volume, historical trends, gold-silver ratio, moving averages, and RSI technical indicators (December 16, 2025).