In-Depth Analysis of the Impact of Commercial Aerospace’s Inclusion in National Strategic Emerging Industries on China’s Aerospace Sector Investment Landscape

Based on the provided reading notes, China’s commercial aerospace policy has gone through four stages from

to . This evolution reflects the country’s balance between “development” and “security”, bringing far-reaching impacts to the investment market:

• Exploratory Opening Phase (2007-2013)
  : Policy was cautious, investment opportunities were limited, and it was mainly led by national teams
• Accelerated Opening Phase
  : Private capital began to enter, and enterprises like Linkspace emerged
• Orderly Regulation Phase
  : Regulatory system gradually improved, and enterprises like Landspace developed rapidly
• Strategic Emerging Industry Phase (2023-present)
  : Policy dividends were released centrally, and investment value was fully re-evaluated

In 2023, commercial aerospace was officially included in national strategic emerging industries, marking its entry into the

phase. This policy positioning has brought three investment effects:

1. Capital Effect
   : Large-scale inflow of funds from multiple channels such as government funds, industrial funds, and special bonds
2. Technology Effect
   : Core technology research has received national-level support, accelerating technological iteration
3. Market Effect
   : Application scenarios have expanded rapidly, significantly accelerating the commercialization process

As can be seen from the chart, China’s commercial aerospace market shows an

trend:

• Launch Count
  : Increased from 1 in 2017 to 16 in 2024, with a CAGR of over 60%
• Market Size
  : Grew from 8 billion yuan in 2017 to an estimated 125 billion yuan in 2025, expanding nearly 15 times
• Policy Nodes
  : The three key time nodes of 2014, 2019, and 2023 all became catalysts for accelerated market development

According to the latest data, the current investment landscape presents a diversified structure of

:

• National Team Leading
  : Central enterprises such as CASC and CASIC maintain core positions
• Active Private Capital
  : Private enterprises like Landspace and Galactic Energy are developing rapidly
• Accelerated Layout of Industrial Funds
  : As of the first half of 2025, 47 industrial funds related to low-altitude economy have been raised, with a target scale exceeding 75 billion yuan

Based on a comprehensive analysis of growth potential, risk level, and investment value score, the investment value ranking of each link in the industrial chain is as follows:

• Operation Services
  (Investment Value Score:88, Risk Level:55)
  • Growth potential of95%, which is the most promising investment area
  • Mainly includes satellite internet, remote sensing data services, navigation enhancement, etc.
  • High degree of commercialization and relatively stable cash flow

• Satellite Manufacturing
  (Investment Value Score:85, Risk Level:60)
  • Benefits from the continuous advancement of 10,000-satellite constellation plans such as StarNet and Qianfan
  • Wenchang Satellite Super Factory is about to start production, with an annual capacity of 1000 satellites
  • High technical barriers and strong bargaining power

• Rocket Launch
  (Investment Value Score:78, Risk Level:75)
  • Growth potential of 85%, but with huge technical risks and capital investment
  • Reusable rockets like Tianlong-3 have entered the key verification phase
  • Scale effect has not yet fully emerged

• Satellite Manufacturing
  : High technical threshold, and the most certain market space
• Operation Services
  : Relatively mature business model and strong user stickiness
• Rocket Launch
  : Heavy asset attribute, requiring long-term continuous investment

• Policy Dividends
  : The National Development and Reform Commission established a low-altitude economy department, with unprecedented policy support
• Commercialization Verification
  : Transition from “being able to fly” to “being able to make money”, and the business model is gradually maturing
• Safe Development
  : The development principles of “cargo first then manned, isolation first then integration” reduce investment risks

Listed companies in the aerospace sector represented by China Satellite (600118.SS) have performed brightly:

• Stock Price Performance
  : Year-to-date increase of over105%, 6-month increase of103.36%, and market expectations have significantly improved
• Market Capitalization
  : 65.1 billion yuan, becoming the sector leader
• Valuation Level
  : The current P/E ratio is relatively high, reflecting the market’s high expectations for its future growth

• Clear technical route, and the Zhuque series rockets have made breakthrough progress
• Completed multiple rounds of financing, with rapid valuation growth
• Commercial launch service capabilities are gradually verified

• Tianlong-3 completed key tests and will make its first flight before the end of the year
• Targets more than60 launches per year, with significant scale effect
• Reusable technology is expected to significantly reduce launch costs

##5. Investment Risks and Recommendations

###5.1 Main Risk Factors

1. Technical Risk
   : High technical complexity in rocket launch and satellite manufacturing, and failure rates still exist
2. Policy Risk
   : Changes in the international political environment may affect industrial cooperation
3. Competition Risk
   : International giants like SpaceX have obvious competitive advantages
4. Capital Risk
   : Huge R&D investment and long capital return cycle

###5.2 Investment Strategy Recommendations

• Key Focus
  : Areas with high commercialization such as operation services and satellite applications
• Moderate Allocation
  : Sectors benefiting from policy dividends such as satellite manufacturing and ground equipment
• Cautious Participation
  : High-investment and high-risk areas such as rocket launch

• Strategic Layout
  : Full industrial chain coverage, focusing on breaking through core technical links
• Diversified Investment
  : Diversify single project risks through industrial funds and other methods
• International Cooperation
  : Focus on international cooperation opportunities such as the “Belt and Road Initiative”

• Core Allocation (60%)
  : Operation services and satellite manufacturing
• Satellite Allocation (30%)
  : Ground equipment and core components
• Exploratory Allocation (10%)
  : Rocket launch and cutting-edge technologies

##6. Outlook on Development Prospects

###6.1 Market Space Forecast

Based on the current development trend, it is expected that by 2030:

• Market Size
  : Expected to exceed 200 billion yuan
• Launch Count
  : Annual launches are expected to reach more than100 times
• Satellite Count
  : The number of in-orbit satellites will exceed5000

###6.2 Technology Development Trends

1. Reusable Technology
   : Significantly reduce launch costs and increase launch frequency
2. Constellation Networking
   :10,000-satellite constellation plans continue to advance, forming global coverage capabilities
3. Application Expansion
   : Expand from traditional communication and remote sensing to new fields such as the Internet of Things and autonomous driving

###6.3 Re-evaluation of Investment Value

As commercial aerospace is officially included in national strategic emerging industries, the investment value of the entire sector is undergoing

:

• Valuation System
  : Transition from traditional PE valuation to growth valuation
• Investment Cycle
  : Transition from short-term speculation to long-term value investment
• Risk Preference
  : The market’s risk tolerance for the aerospace sector has significantly increased

The inclusion of commercial aerospace in national strategic emerging industries is an important milestone in the development of China’s aerospace industry, bringing unprecedented opportunities to the investment market. It is recommended that investors, on the basis of fully understanding technical characteristics and risk profiles, focus on deploying high-growth and low-risk areas such as operation services and satellite manufacturing, and share the development dividends of this strategic emerging industry through diversified allocation strategies.

— References —
[0] Gilin API Data
[1] KPMG China Research Institute - “The Golden Age of Low-Altitude Economy: Deconstructing the Industry Ecosystem to Help Enterprises Draw a Growth Blueprint”
[2] Huachuang Securities - “Many Local Governments Include ‘Low-Altitude Economy’ in Their 15th Five-Year Plan Recommendations”
[3] Nanfang+ - “Farewell to the Era of Showmanship and Enter Commercial Verification: How Does Low-Altitude Economy Transition from ‘Being Able to Fly’ to ‘Being Able to Make Money’?”
[4] Yahoo Finance - “Annual Production of 1000 Satellites! China’s Satellite Super Factory Is About to Start Production, and Multiple Rockets Are Preparing for Their First Flight”
[5] Yahoo Finance - “Targeting SpaceX Starlink! China’s Three Major 10,000-Satellite Constellation Plans Drive the Commercial Aerospace Sector into a High-Speed Development Period”