Analysis of Driving Factors, Valuation, and Risks Behind Moore Threads' Stock Price Surpassing 900 Yuan

1. Theme Overlay and Sentiment Catalysis
   
   Listed in the first week with a 723% increase, it quickly jumped from an issue price of 114.28 yuan to a maximum of 941.08 yuan, with a market value exceeding 442.3 billion yuan, reflecting the characteristics of an emotional bubble driven by the dual wheels of ‘AI + domestic chips’ [1]. Low liquidity, high growth, scarcity of new stocks (strict IPO review), and the policy background of official support for hard technology have jointly attracted rapid capital inflows, leading to an extreme amplification of short-term valuation at the sentiment level [1][3].

2. Enhanced Imagination of Products and Technology
   
   The company claims to be advancing the planning of a new-generation GPU architecture based on its self-developed MUSA architecture, positioning itself as the ‘Chinese version of NVIDIA’ and occupying a strategic first-mover advantage in the domestic GPU track. Media and investors benchmark it against international leaders, further strengthening the imagination of future business growth, which has become an important catalyst for the stock price rise [2].

3. Market Structure and Supply-side Bottlenecks
   
   This year, A-share new stock reviews have become stricter and the total amount is limited, making limited high-quality hard technology IPOs highly sought after by capital. The retail subscription success rate is extremely low (about 0.02%), and insufficient expectations have led to a small number of chips being controlled by a few people, further amplifying the floating space and forming an ultra-short-term upward trend [3].

4. Official Policy Attitude and Improvement of Macro Risk Preference
   
   The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes supporting science and technology, AI, and semiconductors; many securities firms believe that AI, computing power infrastructure, and domestic chips are the main investment lines for new quality productivity. Under this policy orientation, the market is more enthusiastic about strategic direction technology stocks, which also provides a valuation premium basis for Moore Threads under ‘policy mismatch’ [4].

1. Profitability Has Not Yet Been Realized
   
   The company’s revenue in the first three quarters of 2025 was 785 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was still a loss of 724 million yuan. It is expected to lose between 730 million yuan and 1.168 billion yuan for the whole year, and has not yet achieved positive cash flow [1]. The current stock price is considered to be too much beyond the ‘earnings basis’, and the valuation logic is completely dependent on the future realization of product launch and customer introduction.

2. Distorted Valuation Multiples
   
   Only a few days after listing, the valuation has expanded nearly 20 times compared to the pre-IPO valuation of 24.6 billion yuan, implying that the market has discounted the expected revenue or profit for many years into the present. Compared with Cambricon’s only 6-fold growth in five years after listing, this valuation expansion is almost entirely driven by sentiment and lacks support synchronized with performance [1]. If subsequent technical product certification, capacity expansion, or customer introduction progress is not smooth, the stock price is prone to correction.

3. High Elasticity Risk Warning
   
   The company has actively disclosed stock trading risks, clearly stating that the new architecture and new GPU are still in the R&D stage, and mass production and revenue will take time. Investors should be alert to the risk of valuation correction brought by the ‘expectation gap’ and the inability of new products to be commercialized quickly [1].

• Driving Factors
  : This round of stock price breaking through 900 yuan is mainly driven by the ‘first domestic GPU stock’, AI technology theme, limited IPO supply, and policy preference, which is a typical ‘imagination + short-term supply-demand mismatch’ type of market.
• Valuation Sustainability
  : From the fundamental perspective, Moore Threads is still in the stage of huge losses and limited revenue scale, with valuation highly dependent on future product realization. The current market value has far exceeded its performance basis, and there are significant pullback risks.
• Investment Suggestions
  : If you participate in this stock, you must pay attention to: ① Progress of new GPU architecture and mass production; ② Progress of key customer (AI data center/self-developed computing power) introduction; ③ Financing situation and changes in equity structure; ④ Cooling of AI theme popularity by macro or regulatory authorities. For ordinary investors, it is recommended to link positions with the progress of profitability realization or wait for the valuation repair window after a correction.

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[1] Yahoo Finance Hong Kong - “Five Trading Days Surge 723%! Moore Threads Urgently Warns of Trading Risks: Who is Pushing It Up Behind the Scenes?” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/五個交易日暴漲723%！摩爾線程緊急提示交易風險-誰在幕後推高-063006974.html)
[2] WSJ Chinese Website - “‘Chinese Version of NVIDIA’ Moore Threads’ Stock Price Rises, Driven by News of New GPU Architecture Plan” (https://cn.wsj.com/articles/moorethreads-shares-gain-on-new-gpu-architecture-plan-27c83586)
[3] Yahoo Finance Hong Kong - “China’s IPO Market Booms But Retail Subscription Rate is Only 0.02%” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/中國ipo市場熱翻天-散戶中籤率卻僅0-02-031254476.html)
[4] Yahoo Finance Hong Kong - “〈Mainland Stock Market After Hours〉Central Economic Work Conference Vows to Support Economy, Three Indices Rebound Across the Board …” (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/陸股盤後-中央經濟工作會議誓言撐經濟-三大指數-全面反彈-083113791.html)