Impact of New Quantitative Trading Regulations on the A-share Market, Kweichow Moutai's Volume Control and Price Protection Strategy, and Long-term Value Analysis

Based on the latest market data and analysis, I will provide a comprehensive analysis of the impact of new quantitative trading regulations on the structure of the A-share market and the long-term value of Kweichow Moutai’s volume control and price protection strategy.

In 2025, the A-share market ushered in the historically significant ‘First Year of Technical Equality’ [1]. The core of this round of new quantitative trading regulations is

, which fundamentally eliminates the speed advantage of quantitative trading [1].

• 2015-2017: Quantitative trading supplemented liquidity
• 2018-2020: Quantitative trading accounted for ~15% and was seen as efficiency improvement
• 2021-2023: Quantitative trading accounted for 30%-40% and became the main source of liquidity
• 2024-2025: Quantitative trading accounted for over 50% and began to affect the price formation mechanism [1]

The new regulations include six core measures [1]:

1. Market-wide unified latency (+200km fiber optic)
2. Brokerage port sharing (cancel exclusive access for single clients)
3. High-frequency trading restrictions (300 trades/second, 20,000 trades/day)
4. Penetrating supervision (account, strategy, algorithm filing)
5. Leverage and position limits (single account not exceeding 5%)
6. Accelerated implementation rhythm (launched in 1 month)

High-frequency strategies are directly impacted, and the share of high-frequency trading is expected to drop significantly [1].

The quantitative industry will undergo ‘secondary differentiation’:

• Top quantitative institutions: Shift to neutral, macro, CTA, and AI large models
• Mid-tier quantitative institutions: Shift to multi-asset strategies
• Small institutions: Gradually exit [1]

From ‘competing on hardware’ to ‘competing on research’, brokerage trading systems will迎来 the biggest upgrade in a decade [1].

The goal of the new regulations is to rebuild market order:

• Let prices return to real supply and demand
• Let ordinary investors stand on a fair starting line again
• Let brokerages return to their service essence
• Let the quantitative industry shift from technical competition to research competition [1]

Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, pointed out that the more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 will be reflected as ‘one stable, three increases’ [2].

Yang Delong, Chief Economist at Qianhai Open Source Fund, said that monetary policy is expected to remain flexible and appropriate, maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity through interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio reductions, etc. [2]. Wen Bin added that policy operations emphasize ‘flexible and efficient’,既要 do a good job of ‘discretionary decisions’ and balance multiple goals [3].

Zhongtai Strategy analysis pointed out that ‘anti-involution’ will become the focus of next year’s policy, and consumer ‘national subsidies’ will shift from automobiles to service consumption [3].

As of December 15, 2025, Kweichow Moutai’s stock price closed at

, up 0.41% on the day [0]. From the recent performance, Moutai’s stock price has fallen 5.88% in the past 60 trading periods, with a volatility of 0.83% [0].

In December 2025, Kweichow Moutai will stop distributing all Moutai products to dealers (prepayment completed) until January 1, 2026 [4].

In 2026, it plans to significantly cut non-standard product quotas [4]:

• 15-year Moutai quota cut by 30%
• 1L Feitian Moutai quota cut by 30%
• Zodiac Moutai quota cut by 50%
• Colored glaze treasure Moutai quota cut by 100% (completely stop supply)

After the volume control policy was launched, Moutai’s batch prices rose sharply:

• December 13: 25-year Feitian loose bottles quoted at 1500 yuan/bottle, original cases at 1520 yuan/bottle
• December 14: Loose bottles quoted at 1570 yuan/bottle, original cases at 1590 yuan/bottle, up nearly 100 yuan in two days [4]

Terminal sales prices also rebounded significantly, with some retailers quoting 1750-1799 yuan/bottle [4].

Insiders revealed that Moutai proposed a ‘comprehensive marketization’ strategy: sell at the market price, which is expected to be piloted on some non-standard Moutai products [5]. This may include:

• Promote price marketization in the form of product combinations
• Sell high-end products such as premium Moutai at prices substantially close to the market price
• Moderately relax dealer investment thresholds [5]

According to the latest financial analysis [0]:

• ROE
  : 36.48% (extremely excellent)
• Net Profit Margin
  : 51.51% (industry-leading)
• Operating Profit Margin
  :71.37% (strong profitability)
• Current Ratio
  :6.62 (financially stable)
• Quick Ratio
  :5.18 (strong short-term solvency)

Based on the three-scenario DCF model [0]:

Scenario	Fair Value	Relative to Current Price
Conservative	$1,088.40	-23.7%
Neutral	$1,576.85	+10.5%
Optimistic	$2,565.01	+79.8%

Key Assumptions:

• Baseline scenario revenue growth rate:20%
• Baseline scenario EBITDA margin:79.1%
• WACC:9.4%
• Beta:0.72 (obvious defensive characteristics)

• P/E Ratio:19.88x
• P/B Ratio:6.95x
• EV/OCF:20.27x

Considering Moutai’s brand moat, scarcity, and pricing power, the current valuation has entered a relatively reasonable range, especially compared to the historical valuation center.

1. Brand Moat
   : The top Chinese liquor brand with extremely strong brand premium capability
2. Scarce Resource
   : Supply is naturally scarce due to origin and process restrictions
3. Pricing Power
   : Strong pricing power to pass on cost pressures
4. Stable Cash Flow
   : Abundant cash flow and stable dividend policy

1. Consumption Downgrade
   : Economic downturn may affect high-end liquor consumption
2. Policy Risk
   : Anti-corruption policies may affect official consumption
3. Increased Competition
   : Other high-end brands may seize market share

##5. Investment Recommendations and Risk Warnings

###5.1 Market Environment Impact

Against the backdrop of new quantitative trading regulations and economic policy shifts, the A-share market will pay more attention to fundamental research and long-term value investment, which is relatively favorable for value stocks like Moutai.

###5.2 Technical Analysis

From the technical indicators, Moutai’s stock price is currently at a relatively low level, with the 20-day moving average at 1438.61 yuan and the 50-day moving average at1444.48 yuan [0]. The stock price is slightly below the moving average level, with technical rebound demand.

###5.3 Comprehensive Rating

Based on the positive effects of the volume control and price protection strategy, relatively reasonable valuation level, and stable financial status, we give Kweichow Moutai a

rating with a target price of 1576.85 yuan (based on the neutral DCF scenario).

###5.4 Risk Warnings

1. Policy execution effect is less than expected
2. Macro economic downturn pressure increases
3. High-end liquor consumption recovery is less than expected
4. Market style shift puts pressure on valuation

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[0] Jinling API Data
[1] NetEase - “Is the Strictest Quantitative Regulation in History Coming?” (https://www.163.com/dy/article/KGIR651M05568W0A.html)
[2] Sina Finance - “How Will the Central Economic Work Conference Affect A-shares?” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/roll/2025-12-11/doc-inhamxpz7934768.shtml)
[3] Eastmoney - “Zhongtai Strategy: What Impact Will the Central Economic Work Conference Have on the Market After Its Conclusion?” (https://wap.eastmoney.com/a/202512143590907884.html)
[4] The Paper - “Price Rises Multiple Times a Day and Out of Stock! Feitian Moutai Batch Price Approaches 1600 Yuan Mark” (https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32174131)
[5] Sina Finance - “Liquor Stocks Rebound Collectively, Moutai Will Promote Comprehensive Marketization and May Moderately Relax Dealer Thresholds” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-15/doc-inhawaum4211796.shtml?cre=tianyi&mod=pchp&loc=9&r=0&rfunc=46&tj=cxvertical_pc_hp&tr=12)