High Goods Costs Driving Holiday Spending Cuts: CNBC All-America Economic Survey Insights

This analysis is based on the CNBC All-America Economic Survey published on December 15, 2025 [1]. The survey reveals 41% of U.S. consumers plan to spend less during the holiday season, a 6-point increase from 2024, with 46% of these respondents citing high goods costs as the primary driver (a significant 10-point rise year-over-year) [1]. Inflation over the past several years and tariff-induced import price hikes directly contribute to elevated checkout prices, influencing both how much consumers spend and where they shop [1]. The survey also notes a sharp increase in holiday-season debt: 57% of respondents enter this period with existing debt, up 11 points from 2024 [1]. Internal retail trend analysis [0] confirms aligning behaviors, such as higher-income consumers shifting to discount stores, reflecting widespread cost-consciousness.

1. Cross-Domain Debt Drivers
   : The 11-point rise in holiday-season debt may correlate with the resumption of student loan payments, a potential contributing factor noted in the survey’s broader context [1], linking policy changes to consumer spending trends.
2. Lingering Tariff Effects
   : While upcoming tariffs (e.g., 2026 India diamond tariffs) do not yet impact current holiday prices, the survey attributes price pressure to past tariff-driven import costs, highlighting the long-term influence of trade policies on consumer costs [1].
3. Retail Sector Segmentation
   : Internal data [0] shows value-focused shopping behaviors are on the rise, implying uneven impacts across retail—discount retailers and value brands may outperform premium or non-discount counterparts this holiday season.

• Retail Revenue Volatility
  : Non-discount retailers face reduced holiday sales volumes, potentially straining Q4 2025 revenue [0].
• GDP Growth Slowdown
  : With consumer spending accounting for ~70% of U.S. GDP, reduced holiday spending could dampen Q4 2025 growth projections [0].
• Post-Holiday Spending Contraction
  : The 57% holiday debt rate increases the risk of sustained reduced spending in Q1 2026 as consumers prioritize debt repayment [1].

• Discount Retailer Growth
  : Increased demand for affordable goods positions discount retailers and value-focused brands to capture higher market share [0].
• Promotional Effectiveness
  : Retailers offering targeted discounts and value bundles may mitigate spending cuts by attracting cost-conscious consumers [0].

The CNBC All-America Economic Survey provides a timely snapshot of consumer sentiment, with clear links between elevated goods costs, inflation, tariffs, and reduced holiday spending. Key metrics include: 41% planned spending cuts (6 points YoY), 46% citing high goods costs (10 points YoY), and 57% holiday-season debt (11 points YoY). Internal analysis [0] confirms aligning retail trends, though information gaps remain regarding the survey’s sample size/methodology, exact dollar spending reductions, and specific tariff-impacted goods. This data offers context for understanding consumer behavior and potential economic and retail sector impacts, without providing prescriptive investment recommendations.