Fed Governor Miran’s Dissent on December Rate Cut and Comments on Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair Candidate

This analysis is based on the December 15, 2025 CNBC “Money Movers” interview with Fed Governor Stephen Miran [7]. On December 10, 2025, the Fed announced a 0.25% rate cut (moving the benchmark rate to the 3.5%-3.75% range), marking the third consecutive cut of the year [1]. The decision was not unanimous; three officials, including Miran, dissented, resulting in a 9-3 vote [2]. The 2025 rate cuts occurred amid mixed economic signals: hopes for a soft inflation landing alongside renewed price pressures from tariffs, immigration policies, and supply chain issues [5].

Miran’s dissent is likely rooted in his inflation outlook, as outlined in his December 15 speech [6]. He argued that measured inflation fails to reflect current supply-demand dynamics, with shelter inflation lagging and monetary policy needing to account for 2027 economic conditions rather than past data. This suggests concerns about future inflation may have motivated his opposition to the rate cut.

Additionally, Miran made a lighthearted comment that “Kevin is a fantastic name,” widely interpreted as referencing Kevin Hassett, a leading candidate for Fed chair under President Donald Trump [3][4]. Hassett, a former Director of the National Economic Council, has stated he would present the president’s views to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) but emphasized the Fed’s independence, addressing concerns about political interference [3][4].

1. Fed Policy Split
   : The three dissenting votes in the December rate cut signal a notable divide within the Fed on inflation outlook and policy direction, which could influence 2026 rate decisions [2].
2. Fed Independence Concerns
   : Hassett’s comments on maintaining Fed independence aim to mitigate concerns amid President Trump’s calls for much lower rates (1% or lower), a view largely opposed by economists [4].
3. Policy Lag Considerations
   : Miran’s focus on policy lags highlights the challenge of calibrating monetary policy to future economic conditions rather than relying solely on current measured inflation [6].

• Risks
  : The Fed’s internal split could create market uncertainty as investors assess future policy direction [1]. Political pressure on the Fed chair role may also pose risks to the institution’s monetary policy independence [4].
• Opportunities
  : A confirmed Fed chair could provide clearer policy guidance, potentially stabilizing markets. Hassett’s public commitment to independence, if fulfilled, would reinforce the Fed’s credibility [3][4].

• The Fed cut rates by 0.25% on December 10, 2025 (the third consecutive cut), moving the benchmark rate to 3.5%-3.75% [1].
• Stephen Miran dissented from the rate cut, likely due to concerns about future inflation as outlined in his December 15 speech [6].
• Kevin Hassett, a leading Fed chair candidate, has emphasized the Fed’s independence from political pressure [3][4].
• The Fed’s split on policy direction may impact 2026 monetary policy decisions and market dynamics [2].