Consumer Experience Spending Drives Cruise Sector Growth Into 2026

On December 15, 2025, David Katz, Managing Director at Jefferies, noted strong travel demand driven by consumers prioritizing experiences over goods, with cruise lines gaining share as a cost-effective alternative to combined hotel and flight expenses [1]. This aligns with broader structural industry trends: a JLL report found Canadian holiday shoppers allocated 39% of budgets to experiences (a 17% year-over-year increase) [4], while Bain’s luxury study highlighted cruises as top beneficiaries of reduced goods spending [2].
The cruise sector’s recovery and growth are evidenced by concrete data: Viking reported 19% Q3 2025 revenue growth and 96% capacity utilization [3]; AAA’s 2025 holiday forecast showed “Other Travelers” (including cruises) growing 9%—four times faster than air travel (2%) [7]; and 21.7M Americans are projected to cruise in 2026 (a record) [6]. Cruises’ cost competitiveness stems from all-inclusive packages that bundle accommodation, dining, and activities, avoiding individual expenses of flights and hotels [1].
Value chain impacts include upstream demand for shipbuilding (60 ships planned for Alaska in 2026, up from 54) [5] and downstream growth for tour operators and destination marketers (e.g., Klawock Island’s 147% increase in cruise calls) [5]. Airlines face indirect competition in regional markets, though long-haul flights remain complementary [3].

1. Structural Consumer Shift
   : The preference for experiences over goods is long-term, not temporary—supported by JLL’s holiday spending data and Bain’s luxury market analysis, indicating a “tectonic” industry reset [2][4].
2. Dual Growth Drivers
   : Cruise demand is fueled by both experience prioritization and cost competitiveness, distinguishing it from other travel segments like air travel (slower growth) [1][7].
3. Emerging Market Expansion
   : The Alaska cruise market is a key growth area, with 6 new ships and 147% more calls at Klawock Island in 2026, signaling sector expansion beyond traditional destinations [5].
4. Competitive Advantage for Established Players
   : Viking’s strong Q3 performance and Royal Caribbean’s new ship launches reflect how established lines are capitalizing on the trend, while new entrants (e.g., Virgin Voyages in Alaska) are increasing competition [3][6].

• Opportunities
  :
  • Cruise lines can leverage record demand to expand capacity (7 new mega-ships launching in 2026) [6] and differentiate through unique experiences (roller coasters, immersive dining) [6].
  • Hotels and airlines can offset indirect competition by offering pre/post-cruise packages, creating complementary revenue streams [7].
  • Destination communities like Klawock Island can invest in infrastructure to capture spending from increased passenger volumes [5].
• Risks
  :
  • Overcapacity from rapid ship additions could lead to price wars, eroding margins for cruise lines [6].
  • Regulatory and environmental scrutiny (e.g., emissions standards in Amsterdam) may limit growth in popular destinations [8].
  • Cost fluctuations (fuel, labor) could reduce the cruise sector’s relative affordability [1].

The cruise sector is experiencing significant growth driven by a structural consumer shift toward experiences and the industry’s cost competitiveness. Key metrics include Viking’s 19% Q3 revenue growth, AAA’s 9% cruise segment growth forecast, and a record 21.7M projected American cruisers in 2026. Major players are expanding capacity, while new entrants are intensifying competition in markets like Alaska. Stakeholders should monitor consumer preference sustainability, capacity management, and regulatory developments to navigate the evolving landscape.