T-Mobile (TMUS) Reddit Bullish Thesis and Market Analysis (2025-12-13)

On December 13, 2025, a Reddit user published a bullish thesis on T-Mobile (TMUS), arguing the stock is oversold and positioned for meaningful upside [1]. The post claims TMUS consistently bounces off the 150-day simple moving average (SMA) on the weekly chart and highlights fundamentals including sustained subscriber growth, 5G leadership, diversified broadband/fiber revenue, free cash flow (FCF) tailwinds, and margin expansion potential [1].

Corroborating the oversold claim, internal market data shows TMUS closed at $195.12 on December 13, 2025—near its 52-week low of $194.01—with technical indicators (RSI, KDJ) confirming oversold conditions [0]. The stock has declined 6.88% over 5 days and 9.06% over 1 month, driven by Verizon’s aggressive holiday promotions undercutting TMUS deals, a National Advertising Division (NAD) referral to the FTC over 5G advertising claims, and Morgan Stanley lowering its price target to $260 [3].

Fundamentally, TMUS’s Q3 2025 performance supports upside: 1M+ postpaid phone net adds, 500K+ broadband customers, 9% service revenue growth, and 26% FCF conversion [0]. The company’s capital-light fiber expansion and 5G network leadership position it to capture market share long-term [0]. While the Reddit post cites analyst targets of $275-$280 (35-45% upside), the analyst consensus is $263 (34.8% upside), with a range of $245-$310 [0]. The post’s reported entry price of $95.02 appears to be a typo (likely $195.02) given TMUS’s 52-week high of $276.49 [0]. Internal data includes the 200-day SMA ($237.84) but lacks the 150-day SMA cited in the post, requiring further verification [0].

1. Limited Short-Term Market Impact
   : With a beta of 0.44 (vs. SPY), TMUS’s low volatility suggests the Reddit post will have minimal immediate effect on price, despite the oversold technical signal [0].
2. Fundamental vs. Near-Term Headwinds
   : The strong Q3 2025 growth contrasts with recent price declines driven by competition and regulation, creating a tension between long-term potential and short-term uncertainty [0][3].
3. Discrepancies in Targets
   : While the Reddit post’s $275-$280 targets align with upper-end analyst estimates, the consensus has moderated (e.g., Morgan Stanley’s $260), reflecting evolving market perceptions [0][3].
4. Thesis Caveats
   : The missing full due diligence, unconfirmed entry price (typo), and lack of position disclosure reduce the Reddit thesis’s reliability, emphasizing the need for cross-verification with official data [1][0].

• Competitive Pressures
  : Verizon’s holiday promotions may slow Q4 2025 subscriber growth [3].
• Regulatory Risks
  : The FTC referral could result in fines or marketing changes, damaging brand reputation [3].
• Debt & Liquidity
  : A current ratio of 0.89 indicates potential short-term liquidity challenges [0].
• Unverified Thesis
  : The absence of full due diligence and position disclosure undermines the Reddit post’s credibility [1].

• Subscriber & Broadband Growth
  : Q3’s strong net adds signal ongoing market share gains [0].
• 5G & Fiber Leadership
  : The capital-light fiber expansion and 5G network position TMUS for long-term revenue growth [0].
• Analyst Upside
  : A 34.8% consensus upside to $263 suggests valuation potential [0].

T-Mobile (TMUS) is trading near its 52-week low ($195.12) with technical indicators confirming oversold conditions [0]. A December 13, 2025, Reddit post argues for 35-45% upside, citing strong fundamentals and analyst targets [1], but the post contains potential typos (entry price) and missing due diligence [0][1]. TMUS’s Q3 2025 performance (subscriber/broadband growth, FCF conversion) supports long-term upside, while recent price drops reflect competitive and regulatory headwinds [0][3]. With a low beta (0.44), short-term price movement from the Reddit post is likely muted [0]. Decision-makers should cross-reference the Reddit thesis with Q4 earnings, regulatory updates, and verified technical data.