NVDA Stock Decline Amid Analyst Optimism: Contrasting Catalysts & Market Sentiment

On December 11, 2025, a Reddit post highlighted a disconnect between analyst optimism and NVDA’s stock price movement [1]. Analysts praised two key developments: U.S. approvals to export H200 AI chips to China, and a new GPU tracking system to prevent smuggling [5,21]. Wells Fargo maintained an Overweight rating with a $265 target, estimating $25-30 billion in annual H200 revenue from China [17], while Bank of America retained a buy rating.

Despite this, NVDA’s stock fell 1.90% to $180.29 by 14:16 ET (6 minutes after the event) and closed down 0.14% at $180.03 [0]. Three competing catalysts drove the decline:

1. Oracle’s 14% plunge (due to a revenue miss and $15 billion AI capex increase) revived AI bubble fears, dragging down NVDA and peers [14,24].
2. Rivian announced it would replace NVDA chips with custom in-house AI chips for autonomous driving, starting in 2026 [2,22].
3. Reports indicate China may limit H200 imports to trusted companies while promoting domestic alternatives, reducing the expected upside [7,20].

The H200 approval is expected to shift sales from informal offshore channels to transparent reporting, clarifying revenue visibility [16]. Analyst consensus remains “Strong Buy” with targets from $235 (UBS) to $265 (Wells Fargo) [17,18].

1. AI Sector Sensitivity
   : Oracle’s negative news had a spillover effect on NVDA, demonstrating the sector’s vulnerability to individual company performance and overspending concerns.
2. Automotive Segment Risks
   : Rivian’s switch to in-house chips may signal a broader trend among automakers, threatening NVDA’s market share in the autonomous driving space.
3. Regulatory Dualism
   : While U.S. export approvals are positive, China’s potential import restrictions highlight the ongoing regulatory uncertainty shaping NVDA’s China revenue.

• AI Bubble Sentiment
  : Continued negative news from companies like Oracle could sustain pressure on NVDA and the broader AI sector.
• Customer Defection
  : Adoption of in-house chips by other automakers could erode NVDA’s automotive revenue.
• Regulatory Uncertainty
  : China’s final H200 import rules and potential political backlash from smuggling could limit sales.

• H200 Revenue Potential
  : The $25-30 billion annual revenue estimate from China H200 shipments presents significant upside.
• Transparent Reporting
  : The tracking system and formal export approvals could improve revenue visibility.
• Strong Analyst Support
  : Consensus “Strong Buy” ratings indicate long-term confidence in NVDA’s fundamentals.

• NVDA closed at $180.03 (-0.14%) on December 11, 2025, with a market cap of $4.39T [0].
• Analyst sentiment remains bullish due to H200 export approvals and the GPU tracking system.
• Competing catalysts (AI bubble fears, Rivian chip switch, China import limits) drove the short-term stock decline.
• Reddit users were divided, with the most support for the view that the stock drop contradicts analyst claims of a “boost”.