2025-12-11 U.S. September Economic Data Analysis: Trade Deficit and Wholesale Inventories

On December 11, 2025, CNBC’s Rick Santelli presented September 2025 economic data, including trade deficit and wholesale inventories figures [1].

The

unexpectedly narrowed by 10.9% to $52.8 billion, the lowest since June 2020, and well below the $63.3 billion estimate [0]. This improvement was driven by robust exports, which climbed 3.0% to $289.3 billion—with goods exports surging 4.9% to $187.6 billion (a record high for consumer goods shipments). Imports also rose 0.6% to $342.1 billion [0].

increased by 0.5%, significantly exceeding the 0.1% estimate, following a revised 0.1% decrease in August [0]. Non-durable goods led the rise (0.7%), with durable goods up 0.3%. However, wholesale sales slipped 0.2% for the second consecutive month, pushing the inventory/sales ratio to 1.29 from 1.28 [0].

Market reaction was mixed despite the positive data, as two key external factors exerted stronger influence: (1) The Federal Reserve had cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 10 in a divided vote but signaled a likely pause in further reductions; (2) Oracle’s underwhelming guidance negatively impacted AI-related stocks, dragging down the NASDAQ [0].

1. Resilient Global Demand
   : The record high in U.S. consumer goods exports indicates strong global demand, which could support manufacturing and corporate earnings over the medium term [0].
2. Monetary Policy Dominance
   : The Fed’s rate cut pause signal had a more pronounced market impact than the positive economic data, highlighting that central bank policy remains a key driver of short-term market sentiment [0].
3. Sector-Specific Risks
   : Oracle’s guidance underscores potential headwinds in the AI sector, a major market driver, which contributed to the NASDAQ’s decline [0].

• Risks
  : The Fed’s rate pause could limit market gains if economic growth slows, as the potential for further stimulus is reduced. Oracle’s guidance raises concerns about the sustainability of AI sector momentum, which may lead to increased volatility in tech stocks [0].
• Opportunities
  : The strong export data suggests a competitive U.S. goods market globally, benefiting export-reliant industries. Higher-than-expected wholesale inventories may indicate business confidence in future demand, supporting economic stability [0].

This analysis covers the December 11, 2025, release of U.S. September economic data (trade deficit, wholesale inventories), their characteristics, and the mixed market response. The positive data was overshadowed by the Fed’s rate cut pause signal and Oracle’s weak guidance. The report provides informational context for decision-making without offering investment recommendations [0].