Reddit Discussion Analyzing GS and JPM 2026 U.S. Dollar Weakness Forecasts

This report is based on a December 11, 2025 Reddit post claiming Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan (JPM) predict further U.S. dollar weakness in 2026 [0]. GS is purported to favor currencies with high real rates (Brazilian real, Mexican peso, South African rand), while JPM is said to prefer the Euro and Australian dollar. The post mentions potential catalysts like dollar hoarders converting to local currencies.

Direct verification of the specific GS/JPM currency forecasts was not possible through web searches [0]. However, GS’s published gold forecast of ~$4,900 per ounce by end-2026 indirectly supports the expectation of dollar weakness, as gold often appreciates when the dollar declines [1]. This aligns with user comments recommending gold as a hedge against dollar weakness [0].

Recent market data shows nominal sovereign debt interest rates in Mexico and Brazil are near 10%, with Brazil expected to raise rates in December 2025 [3][4]. These high nominal rates could translate to attractive real rates if inflation remains controlled, aligning with GS’s purported preference for such currencies. However, Brazil and Mexico face tariff concerns and political uncertainty, which could increase currency volatility [3], supporting user warnings about Brazilian currency risks [0].

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2025 and projects one additional cut in 2026 [6][7]. Accommodative monetary policy typically weakens a currency, potentially reinforcing the claimed GS/JPM forecasts. Gold prices rose 0.47% to $4,206.70 after the Fed’s rate cut, further supporting the link between dollar weakness and gold strength [8].

User claims of a 12% loss in USD purchasing power are inconsistent with New York Fed data showing 1-year consumer inflation expectations of 3.2% [5], suggesting exaggeration. Similarly, comments about “global money printing” lack direct evidence, though central banks like the Fed are pursuing rate cuts [6][7].

1. Indirect Support for Dollar Weakness
   : GS’s gold forecast and the post-Fed gold price rise provide indirect support for the Reddit’s claim of dollar weakness forecasts, even if the specific GS/JPM currency projections remain unverified.
2. High-Rate Emerging Market Currencies
   : While Brazil and Mexico’s near-10% nominal rates appear attractive, political uncertainty and tariff risks create volatility that may offset yield benefits.
3. User Comment Discrepancies
   : Claims of a 12% USD purchasing power loss are not supported by official inflation expectations, highlighting the need for critical evaluation of social media commentary.

• Opportunities
  : Gold remains a potential hedge against dollar weakness, with GS projecting a $4,900 price by end-2026 [1], and recent price movement confirming its sensitivity to Fed policy [8].
• Risks
  : Investing in high-real-rate emerging market currencies like the Brazilian real carries significant political and tariff-related volatility [3]. Additionally, unsubstantiated user claims can spread misinformation about currency and inflation trends.

• GS forecasts gold to reach ~$4,900 per ounce by end-2026 [1]
• Brazil and Mexico’s nominal sovereign debt rates are near 10% [3]
• Fed cut rates by 25 bps in December 2025, with one more cut projected in 2026 [6][7]
• Gold price rose to $4,206.70 after the Fed’s December 2025 rate cut [8]
• U.S. 1-year consumer inflation expectations are 3.2% [5]