Kevin O'Leary Predicts No More Fed Rate Cuts, Warns of Turbulent Markets Amid Political Pressure

This analysis draws on Kevin O’Leary’s December 11, 2025, commentary on “Mornings with Maria” and recent Fed policy actions [0]. On December 10, 2025, the Fed implemented its third consecutive 25bp interest rate cut, with a 9-3 vote revealing a significant rift among policymakers [0]. O’Leary, who had previously opposed a December cut citing tariff-driven inflation, now predicts no further rate cuts in the near term—aligning with the two dissenting Fed members who voted against the December action due to hawkish concerns about inflationary pressures [0].

1. The Fed’s 9-3 split vote underscores a deepening divide between “doves” (supporting more cuts to stimulate growth) and “hawks” (prioritizing inflation containment) [0].
2. O’Leary warns that political pressure from former President Trump—who has pushed for aggressive rate cuts and threatened changes to Fed leadership—risks undermining the central bank’s institutional independence [0]. A loss of confidence in the Fed’s independence could erode global investor trust in the U.S. dollar and the stability of international financial markets [0].
3. Tariff-induced inflation remains a critical barrier to additional rate cuts, according to O’Leary, despite market expectations for further easing [0].

• O’Leary’s comments may shift market expectations, reducing bets on future rate cuts and increasing short-term market volatility [0].
• Growing division within the Fed and persistent political interference could create prolonged uncertainty, negatively impacting asset prices [0].
• Erosion of the Fed’s independence could trigger global financial instability, as the U.S. central bank’s credibility is a cornerstone of international markets [0].

• Clarity on the Fed’s likely pause in rate cuts may encourage long-term investors to reassess portfolio positioning based on stable (but higher) interest rates [0].
• Increased market volatility could create selective opportunities for investors with risk-mitigation strategies [0].

• The Fed implemented a 25bp rate cut on December 10, 2025 (its third consecutive cut), with a 9-3 split vote [0].
• Kevin O’Leary predicts no additional rate cuts due to tariff-driven inflationary pressures [0].
• O’Leary warns that political pressure threatens the Fed’s independence, with potential global market ramifications [0].