GE Vernova (GEV) Stock Hits Record High After Bullish 2028 Financial Guidance Upgrade

GE Vernova (GEV), an energy and electrification firm spun off from General Electric in April 2024, announced a significant long-term guidance upgrade during a December 10, 2025, investor meeting [1][2][0]. The company raised its 2028 revenue forecast by 15.6% to $52 billion, with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding from 14% to 20% and cumulative free cash flow (2025–2028) projected to exceed $22 billion (up from $14 billion) [1]. The primary driver is surging demand for its gas turbines from AI data centers, a niche market where GEV—one of only three major global gas turbine manufacturers—holds a leading position [3].

The news triggered a 15.62% jump in GEV’s stock price to a record $722.97, supported by 10.36 million shares traded (3.5x its 2.96 million average daily volume) [0]. In contrast, the broader energy sector (represented by XLE) gained just 0.74%, highlighting that the catalyst was company-specific rather than sector-wide [0]. Since its spin-off, GEV shares have surged over 350%, with gains accelerating to more than 100% in 2025 [1].

1. Niche AI Demand Drives Divergence
   : GEV’s growth is tied to AI data center energy needs, a specialized segment distinct from the broader energy sector (which includes oil, gas, and other renewables). This explains why unrelated energy stocks (e.g., EQT, BE) did not move with GEV’s news, as they operate in different subsectors [0].
2. Valuation Disconnect
   : The stock’s trailing P/E ratio of 118.13 is significantly above industry averages, creating a potential gap between current pricing and its ~30% projected revenue growth rate [0].
3. Supply Chain Vulnerability
   : GEV is addressing supply chain risks related to rare earth yttrium (critical for gas turbines) amid China’s export controls, working with the U.S. government to secure supplies [3].
4. Competitive Moat
   : As one of three major global gas turbine makers, GEV is well-positioned to capture long-term demand from AI data center expansion [3].

• Risks
  :
  • High Valuation
    : The elevated P/E ratio (118.13) raises sustainability concerns if growth projections are not met [0].
  • Demand Concentration
    : Overreliance on AI data center customers exposes GEV to volatility if data center construction slows [3].
  • Margin Execution Risk
    : Achieving the targeted 20% EBITDA margin by 2028 depends on successful productivity improvements and pricing power [1].
  • Supply Chain Uncertainty
    : Rare earth supply constraints could disrupt production capacity [3].

• Opportunities
  :
  • AI Data Center Growth Tailwind
    : The global AI data center energy market is expanding rapidly, providing long-term demand for GEV’s gas turbines [1].
  • Strong Backlog
    : CEO Scott Strazik noted 80 GW of combined-cycle gas turbine contracts signed in 2025, with less than 10% remaining available for 2026—indicating robust near-term revenue visibility [2].
  • Market Leadership
    : GEV’s position as a top gas turbine manufacturer reduces competitive pressures in its core market [3].

GE Vernova’s guidance upgrade reflects strong demand for AI-related energy infrastructure, driving a record stock surge. The company’s niche focus explains the limited sector spillover, while its competitive position in gas turbines supports long-term growth potential. However, investors should monitor valuation levels, demand concentration risks, and supply chain dynamics as key factors impacting future performance.