Analysis of Nvidia’s Refutation of DeepSeek Banned Blackwell Chips Allegations

On December 10, 2025, The Information published a report claiming Chinese AI startup DeepSeek is using smuggled Nvidia Blackwell AI chips—products banned from export to China—to train its upcoming model. Nvidia immediately denied the allegations, stating no substantiation was found and describing such smuggling claims as “far-fetched,” though it noted it would investigate any tips [1]. The market reaction to the news was muted: NVDA closed at $183.57, a 0.75% decline from the previous day, even as broader market indices (S&P 500: +0.47%, NASDAQ Composite: +0.24%, Dow Jones Industrial: +0.65%) and the Technology sector (+0.11329%) all rose [0]. This modest decline suggests investors are treating the unproven claims with caution rather than panic. Contextually, Nvidia reported strong Q3 2025 earnings, with record revenue of $35.1 billion (+94% YoY) and data center revenue of $30.8 billion (+112% YoY), driven by H200 sales. Blackwell chips are in full production, with 13,000 samples shipped to customers and “staggering” demand [0].

1. Muted Market Reaction Reflects Unsubstantiated Claims
   : The limited decline in NVDA’s stock price, despite negative allegations, likely stems from the absence of concrete evidence, Nvidia’s immediate and strong refutation [1], and the company’s robust financial performance [0].
2. Mixed Sentiment Among Market Participants
   : Discussions reflect conflicting perspectives—some view the report as fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) to manipulate NVDA’s stock price, while others highlight NVDA’s dominant market position in AI accelerators, which remains unchallenged.
3. Bullish Underpinnings Remain Intact
   : NVDA’s record Q3 earnings, high demand for Blackwell chips, and leadership in the AI chip market provide ongoing support, even amid regulatory export headwinds [0].

• Risks
  : If allegations are proven true, both Nvidia and DeepSeek could face intensified regulatory scrutiny, disrupting supply chains and impacting U.S. export control enforcement [1]. Reputational risks may also arise for both companies if linked to smuggling activities.
• Opportunities
  : The focus on sustained Chinese demand for NVDA’s chips underscores its market dominance, potentially strengthening pricing power and long-term revenue prospects [0]. The successful production ramp of Blackwell chips positions the company to capitalize on the growing global AI market [0].

• The Information reported on December 10, 2025, that DeepSeek used smuggled Nvidia Blackwell chips; Nvidia refuted the claim as unsubstantiated [1].
• NVDA closed 0.75% lower ($183.57) on December 10, 2025, despite gains in broader markets and the Technology sector [0].
• Nvidia’s Q3 2025 earnings: $35.1B revenue (+94% YoY), data center revenue $30.8B (+112% YoY); Blackwell chips in full production with strong demand [0].
• Market sentiment is mixed, with views ranging from FUD allegations to bullish outlooks on NVDA’s unchallenged market position.

This report provides information gathering, analysis, and market context to support decision-making. It is NOT investment advice, trading recommendations, or financial guidance.