NVDA: Morningstar Reaffirms $240 Fair Value Target Amid H200 Export Resumption and Market Sentiment Shifts

On December 9, 2025, Morningstar reaffirmed its $240 fair value target for NVDA, responding to the U.S. government’s approval to resume H200 AI accelerator exports to China with a 25% revenue cut [1]. This decision is viewed as a positive step to rebuild China data-center sales, though policy uncertainty and domestic Chinese AI component competition (including Google’s Gemini model using in-house silicon) remain key risks [1].

Retail investor sentiment on Reddit aligns with short-term bullishness, with high-scoring arguments (22/11) predicting the AI boom will continue for 1-2 years, despite recognition of eventual mean reversion [1]. A minor skeptical voice (-2 score) flagged valuation concerns, reflecting tempered caution [1]. Internal market data [0] shows NVDA closed at $184.92 (P/E: 45.89, TTM EPS: $4.03) on December 10, 2025, trading near the midpoint of its 52-week range ($86.62–$212.19) with below-average volume (124.5M vs. 193.4M), indicating calm trading despite the headline [0]. With a $4.50 trillion market cap, NVDA’s performance carries significant weight in AI-dominant mega-cap indices [0].

1. Retail and sell-side sentiment converge on short-term NVDA strength, driven by AI momentum and H200 export resumption, though retail investors express clearer awareness of eventual mean reversion.
2. The 25% revenue cut on China H200 sales exceeds earlier 15% estimates, introducing margin uncertainty that Morningstar’s target may not fully account for without additional disclosure.
3. NVDA’s current price ($184.92) trades 23% below Morningstar’s $240 target, positioning it as a potential buying opportunity amid recent AI stock selloffs, but its elevated P/E (45.89) signals stretched valuation expectations [0][1].

• Risks
  : Geopolitical/regulatory reversal could disrupt China exports at short notice [1]; competition from Google’s in-house silicon and Chinese domestic chips (e.g., Huawei) threatens NVDA’s data-center dominance [1]; elevated P/E ratio makes the stock vulnerable to earnings misses or slowdowns [0].
• Opportunities
  : Resumed H200 exports allow NVDA to rebuild China revenue, stabilizing investor sentiment [1]; the 1-2 year AI boom projection supports short-term growth [1]; the current price discount to Morningstar’s target presents a potential buying window amid selloffs [1].

Morningstar maintains a $240 fair value target for NVDA post-H200 export resumption to China (25% revenue cut). NVDA closed at $184.92 with a 45.89 P/E and $4.50 trillion market cap. Reddit sentiment is short-term bullish (AI boom continuation 1-2 years) with minor valuation concerns. Key risks include geopolitics, competition, and valuation stretch, while opportunities include China revenue recovery and AI momentum.