U.S. Stock Market Near All-Time Highs Ahead of Fed Decision; Gold Stocks Lead Gains (Dec 9, 2025)

This analysis is based on the Investors.com report [5] published on December 9, 2025, and Market News Analysis findings. On that day, major U.S. indices traded near their December 5, 2025 all-time high (S&P 500: 6,895.78 [0]), with the NASDAQ rising 0.31% and Dow Jones falling 0.34% by close [0]. Gold stocks emerged as the top performers: the S&P Gold Index (.SPTTGD) climbed 1.4% by 10 a.m. ET [1], led by individual mining stocks including Harmony Gold (+3.8%), Perpetua Resources (+1.9%), and Orla Mining (+1.5%) [1]. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), a leading gold-tracking ETF, closed 0.46% higher [0].

Market dynamics were heavily influenced by Fed rate cut expectations, with investors pricing in an 87.4%-88% probability of a 25-basis-point cut on December 10 [3][4]. This sentiment supported both equities (which benefit from lower borrowing costs) and gold (a hedge against potential inflation and a beneficiary of lower rates). Notably, the S&P Gold Index has more than doubled in value in 2025 [1], with State Street Investment Management forecasting 2026 gold prices to consolidate between $4,000-$4,500 per ounce [2], supported by Fed easing and elevated stock-bond correlations. A sector discrepancy was observed: the Basic Materials sector (which includes gold) closed slightly negative (-0.07% [0]), indicating underperformance in other sub-sectors offset gold’s gains.

1. Unifying Driver of Equities and Gold
   : Fed rate cut expectations served as a rare shared catalyst for both equity and gold markets, reversing the typical inverse correlation seen in some market conditions.
2. Gold Sector Momentum
   : The S&P Gold Index’s 2025 doubling highlights strong investor demand for gold as a growth and hedge asset, outpacing broader U.S. index performance.
3. Granular Sector Divergence
   : The Basic Materials sector’s slight decline despite gold’s strength underscores the importance of sub-sector analysis, as non-gold basic materials stocks underperformed on December 9.

• Fed Policy Uncertainty
  : Dissenting FOMC members, a hawkish dot plot, or unexpected rate decisions could reverse rate-cut expectations, negatively impacting both equity and gold markets [3].
• Gold Price Volatility
  : Market reactions to Fed signals could trigger $100 per ounce swings in gold prices [3].
• Sector Rotation
  : A more dovish-than-expected Fed outlook could lead to rotations away from defensive gold assets toward riskier equities [4].

• Fed Rate Cut Catalyst
  : A successful 25-basis-point cut could further support both equity markets (near all-time highs) and the gold sector’s momentum.
• Gold Price Consolidation
  : State Street’s 2026 forecast of $4,000-$4,500 per ounce gold prices suggests potential stability for gold-related assets [2].

• U.S. Indices (Dec 9 Close)
  : S&P 500 (6,840.50 [0]), NASDAQ (+0.31% [0]), Dow Jones (-0.34% [0])
• Gold Sector Performance
  : S&P Gold Index (.SPTTGD) +1.4% (10 a.m. ET [1]), GLD +0.46% [0]; mining stocks: Harmony Gold (+3.8% [1]), Perpetua Resources (+1.9% [1]), Orla Mining (+1.5% [1])
• Fed Expectations
  : 87.4%-88% probability of 25-basis-point rate cut [3][4]
• Long-Term Context
  : S&P Gold Index doubled in 2025 [1]; 2026 gold price forecast: $4,000-$4,500 per ounce [2]

All analysis is for information purposes only and not investment advice.