Analysis of Truist's Keith Lerner's Comment on Tech Earnings vs. Fed Rate Cuts

This analysis is based on the December 9, 2025, CNBC Closing Bell interview with Truist’s Keith Lerner, where he asserted that tech earnings will be more important than Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in the coming year [3].

On the event day, the technology sector rose 0.39%, outperforming most sectors [0]. The NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) closed at $23,576.49, up 0.72% over the preceding 20 trading days [0]. Key tech stocks showed mixed after-hours performance: Microsoft (MSFT) +0.20%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +1.07%, while Apple (AAPL) -0.26% and NVIDIA (NVDA) -0.34% [0].

Medium to long-term, Lerner’s comments signal a potential shift in investor focus from macroeconomic factors (Fed rate policy) to company-specific fundamentals (tech earnings). Market expectations for 2026 Fed rate cuts are uncertain—while a December 2025 25-basis-point cut is priced at ~90% probability, the pace of 2026 cuts remains divided [1]. Tech earnings projections show mixed trends: Palantir (PLTR) is expected to grow earnings by 37% in 2026, while Meta (META) could see a 6-7% EPS boost from metaverse budget cuts [2].

1. Investor Focus Shift
   : If Lerner’s view gains traction, tech stock performance may become more sensitive to earnings beats/misses than rate cut announcements in 2026, reversing the recent macro-driven market dynamics [3].
2. Fundamental vs. Macro Drivers
   : The analysis highlights the tension between short-term macro impacts (Fed policy) and long-term fundamental drivers (earnings), with Lerner emphasizing the latter as more critical for tech in 2026.
3. Earnings Disparity
   : Significant variation in 2026 earnings projections (e.g., Palantir’s 37% growth vs. META’s 6-7% boost) suggests potential divergence in performance among tech stocks based on company-specific results [2].

• Earnings Disappointment
  : If tech companies fail to meet 2026 earnings expectations, stocks could underperform even with Fed rate cuts, as markets may have already priced in rate cut expectations [0].
• Regulatory Pressures
  : Ongoing regulatory risks (e.g., EU ad rules for Meta) could impact tech earnings [2].
• Fed Policy Uncertainty
  : A “hawkish” December 2025 rate cut (paired with conservative 2026 guidance) could still influence market sentiment [1].

• Strong Earnings Growth
  : Tech stocks with robust 2026 earnings projections (like Palantir) may outperform if they deliver on expectations, regardless of the Fed’s rate path [2].
• AI-driven Growth
  : Companies at the forefront of AI investment could see accelerated earnings growth, driving stock performance [0].

• Event
  : Truist’s Keith Lerner stated tech earnings will outweigh Fed rate cuts in 2026 [3].
• Short-Term Market Impact
  : Tech sector +0.39% on 2025-12-09; NASDAQ +0.72% over 20 days [0].
• 2026 Earnings Projections
  : Palantir +37%, Meta +6-7% [2].
• Fed Rate Expectations
  : ~90% chance of December 2025 cut; 2026 cuts uncertain [1].
• Monitoring Factors
  : 2026 tech earnings reports, Fed December meeting outcomes, AI trends, and regulatory developments [0].