2025 Fed Rate Cut Dissenters, Michael Burry’s Bullish Stance, and 2026 Bond Market Outlook

This analysis is based on the YouTube broadcast of Market Domination with Josh Lipton on December 9, 2025 [11], which featured discussions on Fed monetary policy, dissenting voting members, Michael Burry’s market position, and the 2026 bond market.

The event highlighted two key themes: potential Fed rate cuts in 2026 and the associated market reactions. Ahead of the broadcast, the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) increased 0.48% to 4.18% [0], reflecting market caution. Michael Burry (via Bloomberg [1]) took a bullish stance on Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC), adding sector-specific context.

Fed rate cut expectations are elevated, with markets projecting the Fed Funds rate to reach ~3% by end-2026 [8]. However, the presence of dissenting voting Fed members (identified by ABC News [3] and Chicago Tribune [5]) introduces policy uncertainty. Analysts (Bloomberg [2], KITCO [6]) note that dissent could trigger short-term volatility.

Jordan Rizzuto’s discussion focused on how rate cuts might shape the 2026 bond market, though specific comments were not publicly available. Historically, rate cuts tend to boost bond prices (inverse to yields), but outcomes remain tied to inflation and employment data.

1. Cross-Domain Correlations
   : Dissenting Fed votes (monetary policy) could impact both bond yields and valuations of mortgage-related entities like Fannie/Freddie, aligning with Burry’s bullish stance.
2. Market Caution Signal
   : The 0.48% rise in ^TNX [0] on the event day indicates investor skepticism about near-term rate cut certainty.
3. Data Dependency
   : 2026 bond market and Fed rate outcomes are highly contingent on future inflation and employment reports, which could override current market expectations.

• Risks
  :
  • Policy uncertainty from dissenting Fed members may lead to short-term market volatility [2], [6].
  • If rate cuts fail to materialize as expected, bond prices could decline (yields rise).
  • Burry’s Fannie/Freddie position is exposed to regulatory changes, which are unpredictable.
  • Unfavorable inflation/employment data could derail rate cut plans.
• Opportunities
  :
  • Bond prices may appreciate if rate cuts are implemented as projected.
  • Fannie/Freddie could see upside if Burry’s bullish thesis (e.g., regulatory reform or valuation re-rating) materializes.

The December 9, 2025, Market Domination event centered on Fed rate cuts, dissenting members, Michael Burry’s FNMA/FMCC bullishness, and 2026 bond markets. Key data includes:

• ^TNX yield: 4.18% (up 0.48% on 12/9/2025) [0]
• Market expectation: Fed Funds rate ~3% by end-2026 [8]
• Tickers affected: FNMA (Fannie Mae), FMCC (Freddie Mac)

No specific investment recommendations are provided; the analysis offers context for decision-making.