2025 December JOLTS Report: Layoffs Rise to 2023 Highs Amid Steady Job Openings

On December 9, 2025, the U.S. Labor Department released a delayed Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report covering September and October 2025 [1]. The report was disrupted by a 43-day federal government shutdown (October 1-November 12, 2025), which combined September data with October’s report and delayed other labor market releases [2]. Key metrics include layoffs rising to nearly 1.9M (the highest level since January 2023) [2], while job openings remained steady at 7.67M in October—slightly up from 7.66M in September and 7.23M in August [2][3]. The number of voluntary quits (a critical indicator of worker confidence) declined in October [2]. Job openings have fallen steadily from a record 12.1M in March 2022, reflecting a cooling economy post-COVID recovery [2]. The Federal Reserve is meeting December 9-10, 2025, and is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate for the third time this year, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target [2]. The layoff spike suggests a cooling labor market, likely influenced by lingering effects of 2022-2023 high interest rates and trade tariff uncertainty. However, steady job openings indicate ongoing demand for workers in certain sectors, creating mixed signals [2]. The shutdown-disrupted data complicates interpretation, as combined September/October numbers may mask month-to-month fluctuations [2].

1. Mixed labor market dynamics
   : Layoffs at a two-year high signal cooling conditions, but steady job openings indicate sustained demand. [2][3]
2. Declining worker confidence
   : Falling voluntary quits reflect reduced optimism about finding better job opportunities. [2]
3. Fed policy dilemma
   : The central bank faces conflicting pressure from stubborn inflation and a weakening labor market, making the anticipated rate cut decision unusually contentious. [2]
4. Data reliability challenges
   : The shutdown-induced delay and combined reporting limit granular analysis of monthly trends. [2]

• Rising unemployment
  : Economists warn the shift from natural attrition to active layoffs could lift the unemployment rate—FactSet forecasts a rise to 4.5% in November (from 4.4% in September), the highest in nearly four years. [2]
• Increased economic uncertainty
  : Shutdown-disrupted data limits visibility for policymakers and investors, hindering informed decision-making. [2]
• Inflation-policy tension
  : Persistent inflation above the Fed’s target could complicate rate cut plans, prolonging economic uncertainty. [2]

• Fed support
  : Anticipated rate cuts may stimulate economic activity and mitigate labor market weakness. [2]
• Sustained demand
  : Steady job openings indicate ongoing hiring needs in specific sectors, offering opportunities for job seekers. [2][3]

• Report Release
  : December 9, 2025 (delayed due to government shutdown), covering September-October 2025.
• Key Metrics
  : Layoffs ~1.9M (January 2023 high); job openings ~7.67M (October 2025).
• Shutdown Impact
  : 43-day shutdown (October 1-November 12, 2025) delayed data and combined September/October reports.
• Fed Context
  : Meeting December 9-10, 2025; expected to implement the third rate cut of 2025.
• Upcoming Data
  : Combined October-November hiring and unemployment data scheduled for release on December 16, 2025.