2025 Dec 9 Market Reaction: JOLTS Report Surprise, FOMC Meeting, and Home Depot Recovery

This analysis is based on the original YouTube event [1], which highlighted three key market drivers: the JOLTS report, FOMC meeting, and Home Depot’s performance. The JOLTS report showed October job openings rose unexpectedly to 7.67 million (a five-month high), slightly up from September’s 7.66 million, defying labor market slowdown fears [2]. However, mixed details included rising layoffs, stalled hiring, and a five-year low in the voluntary quits rate (a worker confidence metric) [2]. This data initially boosted market sentiment, with major indices closing higher: S&P 500 +0.26%, Dow Jones Industrial Average +0.33%, and NASDAQ Composite +0.28% [0].

Home Depot (HD) exhibited volatility: the stock fell ~1% in premarket trading after issuing weaker-than-expected 2026 earnings growth guidance (0%-4% vs. 5.2% analyst consensus) [3]. However, it recovered to close +0.78% on the day, likely due to investor focus on the company’s slightly improved 2026 sales growth guidance (2.5%-4.5%, midpoint higher than the current year’s 3% forecast) [4].

The FOMC meeting began on December 9, with a rate decision scheduled for December 10. Markets priced an 85-87% probability of a 25-basis-point (bp) rate cut, per CME FedWatch [5]. The FOMC dot plot (policy rate projections) is a critical focus, as it will signal the Fed’s 2026 outlook amid conflicting data (resilient openings vs. cooling labor dynamics, elevated inflation) [6].

1. Mixed Labor Market Signals
   : The JOLTS report reveals a labor market that is resilient (rising openings) but cooling (low quits, rising layoffs) [2], which could influence the Fed’s dot plot projections for 2026 rate cuts.
2. Investor Prioritization
   : Home Depot’s recovery demonstrates that investors may prioritize long-term sales growth guidance over near-term earnings miss [3][4], especially amid potential housing market recovery.
3. Cautious Fed Optimism
   : The market’s positive reaction to JOLTS was tempered by FOMC uncertainty, with investors pricing in a high probability of a rate cut but closely watching the dot plot for future policy clarity [0][5].

• Risks
  :
  • Fed policy surprise (no cut or a hawkish dot plot) could trigger significant market volatility [5].
  • Labor market cooling (low quits, rising layoffs) may weigh on consumer spending and corporate earnings over time [2].
  • Home Depot’s earnings guidance miss could pressure its stock if housing market activity underperforms projections [3].
• Opportunities
  :
  • A dovish FOMC dot plot (signaling multiple 2026 rate cuts) could fuel further market gains [6].
  • Home Depot’s sales growth guidance may be met if housing market activity improves, supporting the stock [4].

On December 9, 2025:

• The JOLTS report showed unexpected October job openings strength (7.67M) with mixed labor market details [2], boosting major indices [0].
• Home Depot (HD) recovered from premarket losses to close +0.78%, following weaker 2026 earnings guidance but improved sales growth guidance [3][4].
• The FOMC meeting started with an 85-87% market probability of a 25bp rate cut on December 10, with the dot plot as a key focus for 2026 policy outlook [5][6].

This information provides context for market dynamics but does not constitute investment advice.