Pre-Market Analysis: U.S. Equities Conditions – December 09, 2025

U.S. equities futures traded steadily on December 09, with E-Mini S&P 500 Dec 2025 near 6858.25 [1] and Mini Dow (YM=F) at 47,793.00 [5], reflecting cautious optimism ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting (widely expected to deliver a 25bps rate cut on Wednesday) [3]. Nasdaq futures implied modest gains, buoyed by overnight news of U.S. approval for Nvidia’s H200 AI chip sales to China [9].

After-hours activity on December 8 saw mixed results: Marvell (MRVL) slid 6% despite an earnings beat, following the announcement of a $3.25B acquisition of Celestial AI [8], while MongoDB (MDB) surged 15% on Q3 revenue that exceeded guidance [8].

In pre-market trading (4am-9:30am ET) on December 9, notable movers included Carvana (CVNA) +10% on its unexpected S&P 500 inclusion (effective December 22) [4], Credo (CRDO) +20% after swinging to profit and citing AI build-out tailwinds [8], and Toll Brothers (TOL) -4% on an earnings miss [9]. Wave Life Sciences (WVE) extended its Monday momentum, rising 5% pre-market (building on a 147% surge following positive obesity drug trial results) [9], and Nvidia (NVDA) gained 1.7-2% on the chip sale approval news [9].

Key catalysts scheduled for the day include the release of September/October Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data (pre-Fed meeting context) [7], earnings reports from Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) post-market and Cracker Barrel (CBRL) for fiscal Q1 [6], and the start of the FOMC meeting with focus on 2026 rate outlook guidance [3].

1. Passive fund buying expectations drive Carvana’s pre-market jump, highlighting the impact of index inclusion events on short-term stock performance [4].
2. AI-related developments (Credo’s AI-driven profit [8], Nvidia’s chip sale approval [9]) continue to support tech sector momentum, underscoring the industry’s sensitivity to regulatory and operational AI news.
3. Steady futures amid mixed corporate news reflect market focus on the Fed’s policy decision, indicating that macroeconomic factors dominate near-term sentiment [3].
4. Wave Life Sciences’ sustained momentum demonstrates the biotech sector’s volatility in response to clinical trial results, with investors extending gains from Monday’s positive news [9].

• Surprises in JOLTS data (unexpected strength or weakness) could alter market expectations for Fed guidance [7].
• Fed guidance deviating from market assumptions about 2026 rate cuts may trigger volatility [3].
• Earnings results from Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) and Cracker Barrel (CBRL) could cause post-market volatility [6].

• Pre-market momentum in CVNA, CRDO, and NVDA may persist if their respective catalysts remain relevant [4][8][9].
• A more dovish-than-expected Fed decision could boost broader market sentiment [3].

• U.S. equities futures are steady near December 8 closes, with minor fluctuations in S&P 500 and Dow futures [1][5].
• Pre-market movers on December 9 include CVNA (+10%), CRDO (+20%), TOL (-4%), and NVDA (+2%) [4][8][9].
• After-hours on December 8, MRVL fell 6% on an acquisition announcement, while MDB surged 15% on strong Q3 results [8].
• The Fed’s two-day policy meeting begins today, with a 25bps rate cut widely expected on Wednesday [3].
• JOLTS data will be released during market hours, and earnings from PLAY (post-market) and CBRL (fiscal Q1) are scheduled for today [6][7].
• Overnight news includes U.S. approval for NVDA’s H200 chip sales to China [9].