TD Cowen’s 2026 Economic Themes: Peak 18-Year-Olds and Key Shifts

This report synthesizes insights from TD Cowen’s Lisa Thomas and supporting data to analyze 2026 U.S. economic themes. The core demographic shift identified—peak 18-year-olds in 2025-2026—stems from declining birth rates during the 2007-2009 Great Recession, with 18-year-olds born in 2007-2008 representing the largest cohort before numbers decline [0]. This trend intersects with three other key dynamics:

1. Aging Population
   : U.S. Census data shows nearly all metro areas have growing 65+ populations and declining 0-14 cohorts [1], with 24% of the 2022 labor force aged 55+ (up from 10% in 1994).
2. AI-Powered Healthcare
   : AI-driven startups attracted over half of 2025 U.S. digital health funding (over $4B in H1 2025) [2], with applications in clinical documentation, medical research, and diagnostic accuracy.
3. Autonomous Vehicles
   : Electric and autonomous trucks are moving from hype to deployment due to regulatory pressures, ESG goals, and labor cost savings [3].

• Cross-Domain Labor Impacts
  : The peak 18-year-old cohort’s decline may exacerbate existing labor shortages in youth-reliant sectors (retail/hospitality) [0], while autonomous vehicle deployment could displace traditional transportation jobs [3], creating a need for workforce rebalancing.
• Healthcare Synergy
  : The aging population’s rising demand for medical services [1] coincides with AI’s ability to improve healthcare efficiency and accessibility [2], mitigating potential system strain.
• Long-Term Consumer Shift
  : The peak 18-year-old cohort marks a permanent reduction in youth consumers, requiring companies in fast food, fashion, and tech to pivot toward older demographics [0].

• Risks
  : Higher education institutions face enrollment declines and financial pressure; labor shortages may worsen without immigration/training reforms; Social Security faces funding strain; autonomous vehicle deployment could displace jobs.
• Opportunities
  : AI healthcare startups and tech providers stand to benefit from increased adoption; autonomous vehicles deliver logistics efficiency gains; higher education can innovate (online programs, niche offerings) to attract students.

• Lisa Thomas (TD Cowen) identifies 2025-2026 as the U.S. peak for 18-year-olds, linked to Great Recession birth rate declines [0].
• Aging populations strain healthcare systems and Social Security [1], while AI healthcare solutions improve efficiency [2].
• Autonomous trucks are deploying commercially due to regulatory and cost factors [3].
• Information gaps include exact peak 18-year-old demographic data and TD Cowen’s full 2026 themes report [0].