Analysis: China’s 2025 Economic Summit Focus on Tech Self-Reliance Amid Geopolitical Tensions

This report analyzes the upcoming 2025 China Central Economic Work Conference, a key policy-setting event where leaders will outline 2026 economic priorities with a focus on reducing foreign tech reliance amid U.S.-China tensions [1]. China’s tech industry, while leading in AI and 5G, remains dependent on foreign core components (e.g., advanced semiconductors), amplified by U.S. export controls [2]. The summit aligns with the 15th Five-Year Plan (2025–2029), which prioritizes indigenous innovation for national security and economic sustainability [3]. Expected policy measures include targeted support (financial backing from brokerages for AI, biopharma, and green energy [4]) and expanded R&D investments, marking a strategic, long-term shift toward tech self-reliance.

1. Geopolitical-National Security Link
   : The policy push is rooted in both geopolitical competition with the U.S. and national security concerns, aiming to reduce China’s vulnerability to external tech disruptions [2].
2. Financial Sector Role
   : The CSRC’s directive to brokerages to support tech self-reliance signals integrated policy coordination between economic and regulatory bodies, channeling private capital into high-priority sectors [4].
3. Global Ecosystem Fragmentation
   : Long-term policy implementation could lead to a more fragmented global tech supply chain, as China reduces foreign component imports and promotes domestic alternatives [5].

• Opportunities
  : Domestic tech giants (SMIC, Huawei) and upstream component suppliers stand to gain from increased policy support and reduced dependency risks [0]. The financial sector (brokerages, VC) will play a more prominent role in funding tech innovation [4].
• Risks
  : Global tech firms (Intel, NVIDIA) may face shrinking market access in China if policies prioritize local suppliers [0]. Persistent gaps in advanced chip manufacturing could delay self-reliance goals [2]. U.S. retaliatory export controls remain a key uncertainty [4].

China’s 2025 Economic Summit is expected to reinforce tech self-reliance policies aligned with the 15th Five-Year Plan, targeting core tech sectors with financial and regulatory support. The initiative aims to mitigate geopolitical risks but may disrupt global supply chains and alter competitive dynamics for both domestic and foreign firms. Stakeholders should monitor policy clarity, R&D progress, and U.S. responses to assess future impacts.