Analysis of Delayed September PCE Data Release and Market Reactions

This analysis is based on a Reddit post [1] discussing the upcoming release of delayed September PCE data, which was actually published on December 5, 2025, due to a prior government shutdown [2][3]. The data showed headline PCE inflation rose 0.3% month-over-month (unchanged from August) and core PCE at 2.8% annualized (matching expectations and August levels), with personal spending slowing in September.

Major U.S. indices (S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones Industrial Average) closed slightly up on the day, indicating a muted market reaction since the data aligned with pre-release expectations [0]. SPY closed at $685.69, just below the $686 resistance level noted in the Reddit post, with its $680 support level not tested [0]. NFLX closed up 1.57% ($100.24) despite premarket declines linked to its $72 billion Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition (which includes a $5.8 billion breakup fee), suggesting market optimism about the deal’s long-term benefits [0][4]. ORCL closed down 0.65% ($217.58), reversing premarket gains, likely due to profit-taking ahead of its December 10 earnings report [0]. Following the PCE release, options traders priced in an 87% chance of a 25 bps Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting [2].

1. Timing Discrepancy
   : The Reddit post (timestamped December 6, 2025) referenced the PCE data as “upcoming,” but the data was released the previous day, highlighting a potential information lag in user discussions [1][2][3].
2. Priced-In Expectations
   : The market’s muted reaction to the PCE data indicates that inflation trends and rate cut expectations were already reflected in asset prices prior to the release [0][2].
3. Contradictory Short-Term Dynamics
   : NFLX’s positive close despite initial acquisition concerns and ORCL’s premarket gain reversal demonstrate the complexity of short-term market movements, where long-term fundamentals may override immediate news reactions [0][4].

• Market Irrationality
  : A Reddit user’s comment about the market behaving “like a casino” suggests concerns about unpredictable movements independent of fundamental data [1].
• Unmet Rate Cut Expectations
  : If the Fed does not follow through with the priced-in 25 bps rate cut, market sentiment could sour, potentially leading to asset price declines [2].
• NFLX Acquisition Regulatory Risk
  : The Warner Bros. deal faces scrutiny from organizations like the International Documentary Association, which could delay or block the transaction [4].

• ORCL Earnings Catalyst
  : The upcoming December 10 earnings report will provide insights into ORCL’s cloud and AI business performance, a critical driver of its growth, which could impact broader tech sector sentiment [0].
• Rate Cut Benefits
  : A 25 bps rate cut (if implemented) could support sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as real estate and consumer discretionary [2].

• Delayed September PCE data matched expectations: headline PCE 0.3% MoM, core PCE 2.8% YoY, with slower personal spending [2][3].
• Major U.S. indices closed slightly up; SPY traded near its $686 resistance level [0].
• NFLX closed positively despite acquisition news; ORCL declined ahead of earnings [0][4].
• The market priced in an 87% chance of a 25 bps Fed rate cut following the data release [2].
• Critical factors to monitor include the FOMC meeting outcome, ORCL earnings, and regulatory developments for the NFLX-Warner Bros. acquisition [1][2][4].