Analysis of Trading Regret and Volatility in IREN and SMX Positions

A Reddit trader expressed regret over selling 1,000 shares of IREN at $8 (bought at $5.5, 50% gain) before it surged further, and 500 shares of SMX at $30 (average buy $9, 200% gain) just prior to a pre-market spike to $450. Stock performance data [0] reveals IREN’s 2025 YTD gain of 333.66% with 6.14% daily volatility, while SMX (Security Matters) exhibited extreme volatility with a 52-week range of $1.04–$8393.25 and 58.88% daily volatility (including a +135.45% 1-day change as of 2025-12-06 [0]). The trader’s regret stems from a common cognitive bias: fear of missing out (FOMO) on extra gains despite achieving solid realized profits. Reddit commenters offered a hierarchy of advice, with the most upvoted (Score 9) emphasizing focus on realized gains over missed upside, followed by a partial selling strategy (Score 8) balancing profit locking with upside exposure.

1. Volatility-Psychology Interplay
   : The extreme volatility of IREN and SMX amplifies trading psychology challenges like regret, as early exits can result in outsized missed gains. This dynamic is magnified for speculative stocks (e.g., SMX’s negative EPS [1]), where binary outcomes (huge gains or losses) are common.
2. Partial Selling as a Balanced Solution
   : For volatile assets, the partial selling strategy (sell half at doubling, repeat) addresses both profit realization and upside potential, reducing regret by avoiding all-or-nothing decisions.
3. Underrated Speculative Warning
   : The low-upvoted (Score 1) comment cautioning against overconfidence in startup stocks aligns with SMX and IREN’s speculative profiles, highlighting risks that the highly upvoted profit-focused advice does not fully address.

• Risks
  : Overconfidence in speculative stocks can lead to large losses if catalysts fail; emotional decision-making (regret, FOMO) may result in impulsive trades; lack of systematic rules can perpetuate early exit regret.
• Opportunities
  : Adopting partial selling can mitigate risk and regret; journaling past trades to refine sell rules can improve strategy consistency; shifting to systematic, emotion-free trading can enhance long-term profitability.
• Urgency Assessment
  : The trader’s immediate need to address regret and strategy gaps makes implementing actionable advice (partial selling, journaling) time-sensitive for future trades.

This report synthesizes the trader’s regret from early exits, the extreme volatility of IREN and SMX, and community advice on trading psychology and strategy. Critical data includes IREN’s 333.66% YTD gain and 6.14% daily volatility, and SMX’s 58.88% daily volatility and 52-week range up to $8393.25 [0]. The partial selling strategy and emphasis on systematic trading emerge as balanced approaches for volatile, speculative stocks. Information gaps include the exact sale dates, post-sale catalysts for surges, the trader’s current strategy, and risk tolerance. No prescriptive investment recommendations are provided.