U.S. Hardwood Sawmill Closures Accelerate Amid Tariffs, Weak Demand, and Alternative Competition

On December 3, 2025, Fox Business reported accelerating U.S. hardwood sawmill closures amid a “perfect storm” of tariffs, shrinking export markets, and growing competition from synthetic wood alternatives [1]. The industry’s decline traces to 2018 trade tensions when China halted U.S. hardwood purchases (retaliating against tariffs), costing the U.S. half its Chinese market share (once its second-largest export market for hardwood) to competitors like Russia, Thailand, and Malaysia [1]. September 2025 tariff escalations (10% on lumber, 25% on furniture/cabinets) further strained margins [1]. Compounding these issues, synthetic wood alternatives—marketed as “luxury” products—dominate retail display space (200 alternatives to 4–5 solid hardwood options), reducing demand [1].

Closures affect sawmills of all sizes: West Fraser Timber Co. (WFG) is closing its 140 million board foot Georgia mill, eliminating 130 jobs [2]; small family-owned operations like Evans Lumber Co. (Tennessee) face imminent closure [1]. Large operators like AHF Products are consolidating by acquiring sawmills to secure supply chains [3]. The crisis ripples through the value chain: tree farmers face reduced raw timber demand, while downstream manufacturers may encounter limited solid hardwood supply [1].

1. Cumulative pressure drives acceleration
   : The crisis stems from years of tariff legacy, not isolated events, amplified by recent policy escalations and alternative competition [1].
2. Size-dependent vulnerability
   : Small sawmills (with limited financial buffers) are most at risk, while large operators respond through consolidation or targeted closures [1][2][3].
3. Downstream ecosystem impact
   : Sawmill closures threaten tree farmer livelihoods, increase job losses in rural communities, and may constrain solid hardwood supply for furniture and flooring manufacturers [1][2].

• Short-term (3–6 months)
  : Accelerated closures without policy relief or demand recovery, risking further job losses [1].
• Medium-term (1–2 years)
  : Persistent market share loss to synthetic alternatives and fragmented supply chains [1].
• Long-term (3–5 years)
  : Industry consolidation reducing operational diversity, potentially making the solid hardwood sector more fragile [3].

• Policy advocacy
  : Over 450 sawmills have pleaded for White House/USDA relief, with a planned Washington D.C. trip (early 2026) and China trade negotiations offering potential export market restoration [1].
• Supply chain integration
  : Large operators can leverage acquisitions to strengthen resilience [3].
• Product differentiation
  : The industry could innovate to highlight solid hardwood’s unique attributes against synthetic alternatives [1].

• The U.S. hardwood sawmill sector faces accelerating closures due to tariffs, shrinking export markets, and synthetic wood competition [1].
• Closure rates: ~1 per week; over 4% of sawmills lost since 2018 trade tensions [1].
• Impacts span sawmills (all sizes), tree farmers, employees (e.g., 130 jobs lost at West Fraser’s Georgia mill), and downstream manufacturers [1][2].
• Critical recovery factors include trade policy adjustments, domestic/international demand rebound, and competitive strategy adaptation [1][2][3].