Analysis: Mizuho Forecasts Robust M&A Market Extending Into 2026

This analysis is based on the Reuters report [3] dated December 3, 2025, where Michal Katz, Mizuho Americas’ Head of Investment and Corporate Banking, forecasted persistent “fertile” M&A conditions through 2026. The forecast is anchored in two key drivers: (1) CEOs prioritizing scale and strategic capabilities (e.g., AI/next-gen tech) and (2) private equity (PE) firms divesting aging assets to reallocate capital. Mizuho Financial Group, with a $90.55 billion market cap and 45.6% of revenue from the U.S., is a prominent global financial services player with 10.9% revenue from securities-related businesses [0].

Supporting this outlook, EY-Parthenon projects global corporate M&A volume growth of 3% in 2026 (following 10% in 2025) and PE deal volume growth of 5% (following 8% in 2025) [1]. PitchBook’s Q3 2025 data shows North American M&A deal value hitting a quarterly record of $762 billion, up 23% QoQ, with deal count rising 5% to 5,066—the highest since Q1 2022 [2]. Key macro enablers include resilient corporate balance sheets, easing interest rates, improved financing availability, and reduced valuation mismatches between buyers and sellers [1][2].

1. Strategic Shift in Corporate M&A
   : Corporations are moving from reactive to proactive portfolio transformation, prioritizing acquisitions of tech capabilities (AI) and operational scale to adapt to rapid digital disruption [1].
2. PE Fund Stratification
   : The top 10 PE funds are expected to capture over 40% of global fundraising in 2026 as firms reallocate capital from mature assets to high-growth sectors (tech, renewable energy), while less agile funds may lag [4].
3. Advisory Service Opportunities
   : Investment banks like Mizuho, with strong cross-border and sector expertise, are poised to benefit from rising demand for M&A advisory services, particularly in tech and sustainability [0].
4. Regulatory Context
   : While easing policy uncertainty has fueled deals, antitrust scrutiny of large mergers (especially in tech/healthcare) could slow select transactions, requiring stakeholder vigilance [1].

• Regulatory Scrutiny
  : Antitrust reviews may delay or block large-scale M&A deals in sensitive sectors (tech, healthcare), disrupting deal pipelines [1].
• PE Liquidity Constraints
  : A projected slowdown in PE continuation fund exits below 2025 levels could limit liquidity for firms seeking to reallocate capital [4].

• Corporate M&A Advantages
  : Companies with strong balance sheets and clear strategic goals can capitalize on M&A to enhance competitiveness through tech and scale [1].
• PE Sector Focus
  : PE firms prioritizing high-growth sectors (AI, renewables) are likely to outperform peers focused on mature assets [4].
• Advisory Service Growth
  : Investment banks with specialized industry expertise (tech, sustainability) will gain a competitive edge in the expanding M&A advisory market [0].

The M&A market rebounded significantly in 2025 after sluggish activity in 2023-2024, with North American Q3 2025 deal value reaching a quarterly record. Mizuho’s forecast of persistent robust activity into 2026 is supported by EY-Parthenon and PitchBook projections, driven by corporate scale-seeking, PE asset divestitures, easing financial conditions, and tech capability acquisition. The competitive landscape will see market share consolidation in corporate sectors, stratification in the PE industry, and increased demand for M&A advisory services. Stakeholders (corporations, PE firms, investment banks) should align strategies with these trends while monitoring regulatory and liquidity risks.