Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) Elliott Wave Analysis: Final Rally to 26700 Before Multi-Month Correction Forecasted

This analysis is rooted in FX Empire’s December 3, 2025, EW report [6], which frames the Nasdaq 100’s (^NDX) recent price action as the start of a final bullish wave. As of December 3, 2025, the ^NDX closed at 25628.09 [0], up 2.13% over 30 trading days. The report cites the index holding above 24000 in late November as validation for the rally scenario; a weekly close below this level would shift the forecast to an ongoing correction [6]. Historical seasonality supports potential December strength, with the ^NDX averaging a 1.5% gain in December since 1990 [2]. However, market sentiment is split: some analysts identify reversal signals in major components (Amazon, AMD, Tesla) [1], while monthly “hanging man” candles on key indices suggest bearish tops [4]. Thin December liquidity (20-30% lower volumes historically) could amplify volatility [5].

1. The forecast is exclusively technical (EW) and lacks discussion of fundamental drivers (e.g., Fed policy, earnings, AI sector momentum), limiting its context [6].
2. The 24000 level acts as a critical threshold: a weekly close below this invalidates the rally scenario, while holding above sustains the bullish outlook [6].
3. The report provides clear warning levels (25369, 25158) where daily closes below these increase the likelihood the uptrend has ended, offering actionable risk markers [6].
4. EW analysis is subjective, with competing forecasts: some analysts see a final rally, while others warn of an ongoing bearish trend [3].

• Reversal signals in major ^NDX components (AMZN, AMD, TSLA) could drag the index lower [1].
• Bearish monthly chart patterns (hanging man candles) on the ^NDX and S&P 500 suggest potential tops [4].
• Thin December liquidity may amplify unexpected price movements [5].
• EW wave counts are interpretive, and shifting price action could alter the forecast [6].

• Historical December seasonality (average +1.5% gain since 1990) supports short-term upside potential [2].
• A rally to 26700 would represent a 4.18% gain from the December 3 close [6].

This summary provides factual market context and technical analysis findings for decision-making support, without prescriptive recommendations.