Macy's and Dollar Tree Q3 2025 Earnings Release: Market Reaction and Analysis

This report is based on the Wall Street Journal’s live market coverage [1] of Macy’s (NYSE: M) and Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) Q3 2025 earnings release on December 3, 2025. Key findings include:

• Stock Performance
  : Macy’s closed at $22.71 (-0.48%) with 11.33M shares traded (139% of 52-week average volume), while Dollar Tree closed at $108.99 (-0.82%) with 5.75M shares traded (129% of 52-week average volume) [0].
• Broader Market Context
  : U.S. equities settled higher, driven by chip makers and Boeing [5]. The S&P 500 Q3 earnings season reported 83% of companies beating forecasts—its best quarter since 2021 [5]. Procter & Gamble’s earlier warning about U.S. consumer weakness created a cautious backdrop for retail earnings [5].
• Available Metrics
  : Consensus estimates were -$0.14 EPS and $4.52B revenue for Macy’s, and $1.08 EPS and $4.69B revenue for Dollar Tree [2][3]. YTD returns were 34.35% (M) and 48.84% (DLTR) [2][3].

1. Contrasting Market Dynamics: While the broader market showed positive momentum from strong earnings beats, Macy’s and Dollar Tree experienced slight declines post-release—likely reflecting investor caution amid the consumer weakness warning from Procter & Gamble [5].
2. Elevated Trading Volume: Both stocks saw volume significantly above their 52-week averages [0], indicating heightened investor attention to the earnings event despite the lack of immediate official results.
3. Pending Critical Information: Actual earnings results and management guidance (from scheduled 8:00 AM ET conference calls) are needed to fully assess performance drivers and future outlook [2][3][4].

• Risks
  :
  • U.S. consumer weakness, as flagged by Procter & Gamble, could impact both discretionary (Macy’s) and value (Dollar Tree) retail segments [5].
  • Macy’s has a history of significant post-earnings price volatility, with average daily changes of 5% following recent releases [2].
  • Dollar Tree’s transition post-Family Dollar sale remains a key risk as it adjusts to a smaller footprint and potential customer demographic shifts [3].
• Opportunities
  :
  • Both stocks have delivered strong YTD returns (34.35% for M, 48.84% for DLTR) [2][3], suggesting prior investor confidence in their performance.

• Earnings Event Date
  : December 3, 2025, pre-market
• Stock Prices
  : Macy’s $22.71 (-0.48%), Dollar Tree $108.99 (-0.82%) [0]
• Volume
  : Macy’s 11.33M (139% of 52-week avg), Dollar Tree 5.75M (129% of 52-week avg) [0]
• Consensus Estimates
  : Macy’s (-$0.14 EPS, $4.52B revenue); Dollar Tree ($1.08 EPS, $4.69B revenue) [2][3]
• Pending Data
  : Actual earnings results, earnings call transcripts, and management guidance [2][3][4]

[0] Ginlix Analytical Database
[1] WSJ - Stock Market Today: Dow Futures, Bitcoin Edge Higher. URL: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-12-03-2025
[2] Benzinga - Insights into Macy’s Upcoming Earnings. URL: https://www.benzinga.com/insights/earnings/25/12/49161164/insights-into-macyss-upcoming-earnings
[3] Benzinga - Dollar General, Dollar Tree Q3 Preview. URL: https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/previews/25/12/49165105/dollar-general-dollar-tree-q3-preview-report-shows-traffic-gains-but-snap-benefit-disrupti
[4] MarketBeat - Macy’s Q3 2026 Earnings Report. URL: https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2025-12-3-macys-inc-stock/
[5] Barchart - Stocks Settle Higher on Strength in Chip Makers and Boeing. URL: https://www.barchart.com/story/news/36418627/stocks-settle-higher-on-strength-in-chip-makers-and-boeing