U.S. Futures Rise; ADP Payroll Data Looms Over Fed Rate Decision Amid Crypto Stock Rebound

On December 3, 2025, the Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. futures were rising while global markets exhibited mixed performance, with traders focused intently on the upcoming ADP payroll data release (covering November private sector hiring trends) [1]. This data is a critical precursor to Friday’s official nonfarm payrolls report and is expected to play a key role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision scheduled for the following week [0].

The report also noted a rebound in cryptocurrency stocks on Tuesday, December 2, 2025. Specifically, Coinbase (COIN) closed up 1.32% to $263.26, while MicroStrategy (MSTR) rallied 5.78% to $181.33 [0]. These gains contrasted with the mixed performance of major U.S. indices on the same day, where the NASDAQ (+0.15%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.12%) posted modest gains, but the Russell 2000 (-0.61%) declined [0].

1. The ADP payroll data has emerged as a high-stakes short-term catalyst, as the Federal Reserve has consistently tied its rate policy decisions to labor market strength metrics [0]. Traders are likely positioning portfolios in anticipation of potential shifts in Fed guidance following the data release.
2. The cryptocurrency stock rebound, despite mixed broader market performance, suggests sector-specific dynamics (potentially related to underlying crypto asset price movements not fully detailed in the report) [0].
3. The mixed close of U.S. indices on Tuesday reflects cautious sentiment among investors, who are balancing recent market fluctuations with uncertainty surrounding the upcoming economic data and Fed decision [0].

• Unexpected ADP payroll data (either stronger-than-expected hiring, signaling prolonged high rates, or weaker-than-expected, indicating economic slowdown) could trigger significant short-term market volatility, particularly given the proximity to the Fed’s rate decision [0].
• Cryptocurrency stocks remain highly volatile, and their Tuesday rebound may be temporary without sustained drivers for underlying crypto asset prices [0].

• A softening of labor market indicators (as measured by ADP data) could reinforce expectations of future Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially driving gains across equities, including cryptocurrency stocks [0].

This analysis synthesizes market developments from December 2-3, 2025: U.S. futures are rising amid mixed global markets, traders are awaiting ADP payroll data to inform the upcoming Fed rate decision, and Tuesday saw a rebound in major cryptocurrency stocks (COIN, MSTR) against a backdrop of mixed U.S. index performance. The ADP data remains a critical near-term event, with the potential to shape market sentiment and Fed policy expectations.